Spot price of polysilicon rose by another 10% for half a month.

"Daily Economic News" reported on August 28 that the recent polysilicon price has risen for the first time in nearly two years. After an extensive interview with reporters at the time, it was learned that the industry believes that this trend of rising prices will continue at least until the end of this year.

The news came from the industry on September 8. Many domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade primary polysilicon offer that morning, with the latest price between 490,000 yuan/ton and 55 million yuan/ton. This price has risen by 10% compared with the time when reporters wrote the report on August 28 earlier. Stimulated by it, yesterday (September 8th), Leshan Power [13.103.31%] had a heavy volume limit.

Polysilicon prices rose another 10% for half a month

Yesterday, photovoltaic industry portal Solarbe issued a message that at 11 am that day, most domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade primary polysilicon offer at the Solarbe PV market quotation quotation, with the highest quotation reaching 550,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest price also reaching 490,000 yuan. /Ton. Compared with January, the monthly increase was 25%.

"Daily Economic News" reporter asked the industry for confirmation. An Taike analyst Xie Chen told reporters after asking manufacturers that the latest mainstream prices of polysilicon factories in China are indeed at this level. Antaike is a market research company directly subordinate to the Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals Technology. It is one of the authoritative research institutions in the domestic non-ferrous metals industry.

The polysilicon spot market price, which has been fluctuating around 400,000 yuan per ton for a long time, has been breaking the deadlock that lasted for nearly two years since the end of July of this year, and it has risen for the first time since the financial crisis. By mid-August, the spot price of polysilicon in the domestic market had increased from the previous 400,000 to 415,500 yuan per ton to 440,000 to 460,000 yuan, with a half-month increase of about 10%.

Since then, the spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise rapidly. When interviewed by reporters on August 27th, Xie Chen stated that the domestic spot price had exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton during the week, and the mainstream quotation was at 485,000 yuan/ton to 505,000 yuan/ton. Half-year gains are still around 10%.

It is worth noting that Solarbe issued a message on September 8 that it had previously continued to rise in polysilicon prices, but most domestic polysilicon plants did not follow up prices. With the expansion of plant components and full orders, imported raw materials are in short supply, and domestic raw material plants have finally raised their prices.

According to customs data, China imported 3,682 tons of polysilicon in July, an increase of 34.1% compared with the same period of last year. Compared with the 3,784 tons in June, China's module market showed that the market demand for raw materials remained high. According to a single month, in the first five months of this year, except February, which was 26.47 million tons, the import volume in the other four months was about 3,200 tons. In the previous July, China imported 23,000 tons of polysilicon, which exceeded the level of the previous year.

It is expected that the uptrend will last until the end of the current round of price increases due to the rapid rise in the global PV industry since the end of last year, from the terminal battery components to the upstream raw materials. The largest PV market that accounts for half of the world's demand - Germany's successive cuts in subsidies triggered ramp-ups, and the outbreak of demand caused the prices of PV products to rise.

Xie Chen told reporters on September 8th that the spot price of polysilicon continued to rise. Apart from the increase in demand, it was also related to the recent actions of the company. In addition to GCL-Poly, there are not many monolithic polysilicon manufacturers in China. Many first-line component plants have their own polysilicon production lines. The demand for downstream components has continued to thrive, allowing these companies to adjust their product supply structure. The production of polysilicon is more tilted towards their own use, resulting in a reduction in the number of loose orders that have flowed into the spot market and further tightening of supply.

Therefore, the spot price does not fully reflect the actual supply and demand in the industry. In fact, most of the mainstream polysilicon plant supply contracts are mainly based on long-term orders, although the long-term contract price is also floating, but its price increase rate is far less than the spot as powerful.

Everbright Securities [15.34-1.60%] and Xiangcai Securities expect that this wave of polysilicon will continue to rise until the end of this year. Xie Chen also holds the same judgment. He told reporters that the root cause of this price increase was caused by successive cuts in subsidies by major PV installation countries in Europe. The production of polysilicon from domestic to photovoltaic systems installed in Europe, this process will take about 1 to 2 months. Therefore, before the downward adjustment of the subsidy in Germany in January next year, the domestic polysilicon surge may be maintained until around November, and will enter a relatively stable state after November.

Industry research institutes agreed that demand for photovoltaics will weaken in the first half of next year, and polysilicon prices will fall back then. In the secondary market, Leshan Electric Power Co., Ltd. reported a heavy daily limit on the 8th, but some researchers indicated that most of the polysilicon products of Leshan Electric and Chuantou Energy [14.800.68%] were preferentially supplied by Tianwei Baochang [26.47-1.16%]'s component plants. Therefore, the spot price soaring has little effect on them; the larger beneficiaries are those companies that are not self-employed and have flowed into the spot market, such as CSG A [15.05-2.53%] and Jiangsu Sunshine [6.130.66%].

In addition, on the evening of September 8, Xie Chen told reporters that the latest price of domestic polysilicon has been generally mentioned 500,000 yuan / ton, the highest price has been raised to 580,000 yuan / ton.