Parts play an investment role in the automotive industry next year

In 2010, the automotive industry has undoubtedly achieved more than expected growth, but the market is expected to quietly appear inflection point. Looking at the operating conditions of the automotive industry chain in 2010, the auto parts industry was regarded as the most profitable part. Looking ahead to 2011, the boom in the auto market will come down and the market will return to normal development. However, the auto parts industry is still seen as the most profitable part of the future.

However, in the automobile investment chain next year, auto parts and components will not be "outstanding." The reorganization of new energy vehicles and listed automobile companies will also become a non-negligible investment theme. Of course, this depends on the further promotion of new energy automobile policies and the auto industry assets. The speed of integration has accelerated.

Passenger cars will return to normal next year

According to the data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile production and sales were generally stable in October, with a total of 1.5410 million automobiles, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 22.50%; sales of 1.5386 million vehicles, a decrease of 1.16% from the previous quarter and a year-on-year increase of 25.47%. From January to October, the production and sales of automobiles reached 14,426,800 vehicles and 14,747,700 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 832,800 vehicles and 1,032,200 vehicles over the previous year. Among them, passenger car production was 1.1981 million units, which was a decrease of 2.61% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 23.48%; sales of 1,203,100 units were down by 0.68% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 27.12%. The production of commercial vehicles was 342,900, a decrease of 5.46% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 19.18%; the sales volume was 335,500 units, a decrease of 2.85% from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 19.87%.

Judging from the sales situation in 2010, there was a relatively high growth in the first quarter and the fourth quarter of 2010. The trend in the second and third quarters was relatively stable. Northeast Securities Liu Lixi analysis pointed out that the high growth in the first quarter of 2010 was mainly due to the shortage of economical cars, consumers booking cars in advance and the results of the delivery after the end of the year; the high growth in the fourth quarter was the result of the final bus policy and the wealth effect leading to high-end cars. The result of force and other factors.

On January 14, 2009, the State Council Standing Working Conference reviewed and adopted the “Auto Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan”. The policy stimulus and the Chinese economy continued to improve in the second half of 2009, leading to a monthly increase in monthly sales in 2009. Normal state, but this state is basically continued in 2010.

The market unanimously believes that with the withdrawal of stimulus policies, the auto market will return to normal in 2011, and the profitability of auto listed companies will tend to be flat or even decline. Cinda Securities pointed out that the growth rate of the automotive industry in 2010 exceeded expectations, but the turning point has already emerged.

Maximum parts opportunity

The anticipation of the turning point has been fully reflected in the stock price changes of listed companies in the automotive industry. According to the statistics of Wind Information, from the January 4th to the 8th of December 2010 ups and downs, the majority of the stock prices of 20 automobile companies fell. Only Asian Star bus rose 119.35%, the main reason for the rise in the company's share price is the stimulation of Weichai power restructuring. FAW Car's share price fell by almost 30%. Jiangling Motors performed relatively well, with company B shares rising 81% and Jiangling Motors A shares gaining 28%.

In contrast, the share price performance of auto parts and equipment companies is much stronger than that of vehicle manufacturers. From the stock price performance statistics of 44 listed parts and equipment companies this year, only 8 listed companies have experienced a drop in stock prices, while the share prices of the remaining 36 listed companies have risen to varying degrees. Among them, Wanxiang Qianchao (000559) and Weifu High-tech (000581) performed the most spectacularly. The first three quarters of Wanxiang Qianchao achieved a net profit of 298 million yuan, the basic earnings per share was 0.262 yuan, and the net profit increased by 62.67 percent year-on-year. %.

Chen Yin, an analyst with Monita (Shanghai) Investment & Development Co., Ltd., believes that when the automotive market booms, the entire automobile industry is stronger than parts and components; while the overall automotive market is declining, the relative strength of the parts and components sector is stronger than Vehicle. In the downturn of the economy, the gross margin of the entire vehicle industry is also narrower than that of the parts and components industry, and parts and components companies still have a post-sales parts market to provide demand support during the downturn.

However, on the whole, the relationship between parts and vehicle manufacturing is "one glory and one glory, one loss and one loss." Industrial Securities Lee program analysis believes that the performance of parts and components in the overall automotive industry can be relatively optimistic, there are two kinds of logic: on the one hand, the self-brand car investment in its own brand parts, on the other hand, concerned about the import substitution effect, in particular It is a breakthrough in components with core competitiveness.

Northeast Securities Liu Lixi believes that the outstanding performance of the parts and components industry, in addition to the scale of performance, capacity expansion, the concept of frequency and other performance brought about by the performance, more importantly, the related stocks generally smaller plate, such as Weifu Hi-Tech, FAW Fu In terms of dimensions, Weifang Tianrun crankshaft and so on, the component sub-sector share price in 2011 will still perform.

The market is generally optimistic about the huge after-sales service market space. According to European and American statistics, in a mature automobile market, the profits of automobile sales account for about 20% of the entire automobile industry, and 50%-60% of profits are generated from the automotive after-sales service industry. In the context of new car sales tend to be flat and car ownership is growing rapidly, the profit ratio of after-sales service will increase significantly, and parts and components will receive relatively long-lasting profits from after-sales service.

Commercial vehicle sales or overall decline

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to September this year, the total truck sales nationwide increased by 34.47% year-on-year to 2.916 million vehicles. Among them, the sales growth rate of light trucks, micro-cards, and China Cards were all lower than the overall level, which was 29.54%, 16.73%, and 5.79% respectively. The sales growth of China Cards was the lowest. The most significant increase in the sales of various vehicles in 2010 was heavy trucks. From January to September 2010, the nation’s heavy truck sales reached 788,000 units, an increase of 74.76% over the same period of last year and a year-on-year sales volume of 636,000. It also has 23.91% higher.

According to the general law of heavy truck sales, the sales growth rate of heavy trucks fluctuates on a relatively stable GDP growth rate. When the GDP growth rate is high, the sales growth of heavy trucks will also be relatively high. Some analysis pointed out that the increase in sales of heavy trucks this year was mainly due to the start of the 4 trillion economic stimulus policies. With the gradual withdrawal of economic stimulus policies and real estate regulation, the market is concerned about the downside of fixed asset investment growth, which will significantly affect the demand for heavy trucks in 2011. Moreover, due to the high base for heavy truck sales this year, the market even expects negative growth in heavy truck sales next year.

Chen Yin, an analyst at Monita Investment, turned the focus of passenger cars on the recovery of exports. He pointed out that the current passenger car business is relatively stable, and it lacks offensiveness when the auto market booms upward, but it has better stability when the auto market boom is declining, but the growth point of passenger cars lies in the growth of export business.

New energy and reorganization of alternative themes

Judging from the overall trend of this year's auto stocks, it has basically experienced the transition from new energy theme speculation to performance improvement valuation. The market is still divided on the pace of development of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles are an important direction for future development. However, subject to factors such as difficult new energy technology breakthroughs and unsatisfactory market promotion, new energy vehicles are still difficult to become a climate.

However, with the successive introduction of industrial policy planning and rules and subsidies and other measures in place, the market expects that new energy vehicles may also usher in theme investment opportunities in the future. Compared to new energy automobile manufacturers, the market believes that new energy sources Companies with motor, electric control, and battery-related businesses in the upper reaches of the car are more successful. At the same time, new energy vehicles may take the lead in the field of passenger cars, and related new energy bus manufacturing and listed companies will make progress on orders.

The merger and reorganization of the automotive industry is another alternative investment theme. This year's significant mergers and acquisitions in the auto industry is the reorganization of GAC by Changfeng and Yaxing. After the reorganization, the two listed companies have seen considerable gains. During the adjustment period of the auto industry, it may welcome the opportunity for the acquisition and integration of listed companies.