Small rebounds and fears that 14 tire companies in Handan are still losing money

According to the latest statistics from China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch, in the first three quarters of last year, there were 14 tire companies in China losing money and the loss reached 33.3%. In the fourth quarter, the output was reduced by 1/3 compared to the plan, but the finished product inventory still reached 42.3%. The status quo of overcapacity is clearly present.

The data also showed that in 2008, the export of tires in Guangdong Province decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, especially after entering the month of October, and the volume of tire exports dropped significantly. However, since March, exports have gradually recovered, but the industry is concerned that its duration will not be too long.

Three factors lead to a decline in tire exports

Industry analysts pointed out that there are several reasons for the decline in domestic tire exports in 2008. First, the economic downturn has led to a marked reduction in the demand for tires. The economic crisis has directly led to a sharp drop in market demand and the appearance of suspension of orders. Second, last year, raw material prices fluctuate, especially in the first half of the period of high rubber prices, so that business costs increase. Among domestic tire brands, gross sales margin in the first quarter of 2008 was basically reduced by more than 10% year-on-year. Take South China Rubber Company as an example, the company's rubber procurement cost price in the first quarter rose by more than 30% year-on-year. In the second half of the year, especially after August-September, the price of rubber fell sharply and the inventory of manufacturers was relatively large, leading to a sharp increase in the pressure on the company's inventory. Third, the international currency exchange rate is extremely unstable, which has led to a decline in the import volume of many countries, and generally adopts a wait-and-see attitude. For example, in some South American countries (such as Brazil), the currency exchange rate volatility reached 40% in October last year.

In addition, at present, China imposes a 20% import tariff rate on rubber, and a higher rubber tariff rate also makes the tire export situation unfavorable. Although the tax rebate rate has been adjusted from 5% to 9% since December 1, 2008, it has not yet been adjusted back to the previous 13% rebate rate. More importantly, because of the sharp drop in market demand, this measure has not brought about the positive significance it deserves. An insider of Wanli Tire told reporters that the company had exported 6.48 million tires last year, and the export amount was 1.793 billion yuan, which was 16% lower than last year.

Exports to new markets such as Latin America

"Our export figures for the first two months of this year are a bit ugly," the insider of Wanli Tire told reporters half-jokingly. He disclosed that in January of this year, Wanli Tire's exports amounted to 112,100, and only 77% of the company’s internal targets were completed. In February, exports were 363,000, which exceeded the company’s target of 5%. It has not yet been formally announced, but he estimates that the figure for "excess" exports will be higher.

Pearl River Tires, which are mainly biased in exporting tires, have significantly increased their orders since the end of February, which is 60% higher than in January. March was the same as February, but it is still quite lower than the same period last year. Shuai Shuai, head of Xindi’s tire market department, also pointed out that in March the company’s export volume increased by about 20% compared with the previous two months.

Since the current price of raw materials fluctuates, it has become more stable. After a period of "digestion," foreign dealers' product inventories need to be restocked. Therefore, starting from March, the export of domestic tire companies has rebounded. But it is estimated that the momentum of this rebound will not be too strong, and the duration will not be too long.

With the declining trend of the European and American markets, the export market has gradually shifted from the European and American traditional markets to Latin America and emerging Asian markets. Countries such as South America, the Middle East, Russia, and Africa have already adjusted their proportions in some tire enterprise export regions. Take Wanli Tire as an example, the company's exports in North America and other regions account for 50% each. But since last October, the company has begun to increase its efforts in developing markets in Russia, South America, and South Asia. It can be said that in the past two months, The company’s exports exceeded its internal expectations and the performance of these emerging markets is clear.

data

Nearly 40% of China's tires are mainly exported, and data released by the China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch shows that in 2009, Guangdong exported 46.59 million tires, a decrease of 4.5% from 2007. In the first three quarters of 2008, except February exports were minor After the decline, the remaining months have achieved a certain degree of growth. However, after October, the volume of tire exports decreased significantly, down 12.9%, 25.6%, and 46% year-on-year in October-December respectively. The statistics show that in the first three quarters of 2008, there were already 14 tire companies in China losing money. Up to 33.3%, the output in the fourth quarter was reduced by 1/3 compared with the plan. At the same time, the inventory of finished products reached a record high of 42.3%, showing the status of overcapacity.

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