Oil upgrade schedule finalized 0.5 yuan per liter of oil or price increase

Under the pressure of haze, China's oil quality upgrading action accelerated. Recently, the executive meeting of the State Council hosted by Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council required that “on the basis of the release of the fourth phase of the gasoline standard for vehicles (ie, the National IV gasoline standard, the sulfur content is not more than 50ppm, 1ppm=1mg/kg), the The General Administration of Informatics and the National Standards Commission will issue the fourth phase of the vehicle diesel standard as soon as possible (ie, the National IV diesel standard with a sulfur content of not more than 50 ppm). The transition period will be until the end of 2014."

In other words, China will fully implement the National IV diesel standard after 2015, and the diesel standard will be in line with the gasoline standard. This is the first time China has proposed a schedule for the upgrade of vehicle diesel to the national standard. Not only that, the formulation process of the National Five-Diesel Standard overrides the National Five-Gas Standard. The executive meeting of the State Council also proposed yesterday that “the fifth phase of the vehicle diesel standard (that is, the national five-diesel fuel standard with a sulfur content of not more than 10ppm) will be released before the end of June 2013, and the fifth phase of the vehicle gasoline standard (ie, the State Five) will be released before the end of 2013. Gasoline standard, sulfur content is not more than 10ppm, and the transition period is until the end of 2017."

As early as the middle of 2011, China implemented the four-country gasoline standard. At that time, the “limit” for the transition period of the company was December 31, 2013; and from July 2013, the domestically-circulated national-standard diesel must be upgraded to the country. Three standards (sulfur content below 350ppm).

Why did the State Council executive meeting bring diesel to such a prominent position? This is because, although trucks that use diesel mainly account for only about a quarter of the total number of vehicles in China, they account for nearly 80% of the particulate matter discharged, making them a major contributor to vehicle exhaust pollution. The diesel fuel for vehicles currently has three national standards. However, the diesel vehicles are still used under the standard of the National Three, and the sulfur content is even higher than 2000 ppm.

● "Per liter of oil may increase by 0.5 yuan"

The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out: "As the rapid growth of car ownership, the impact of automobile exhaust emissions on air pollution is increasing." According to available data, China has become the world's largest producer and seller of motor vehicles for the third consecutive year until the end of 2012. The number of motor vehicles reached 240 million. The environmental protection data also showed that the exhaust emissions of motor vehicles in Hangzhou affected 33% of PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns), the impact of vehicle exhaust emissions in Shanghai on PM2.5 was 25%, and the exhaust emissions of Beijing's motor vehicles against PM2. The degree of influence of .5 exceeds 22%.

At present, Beijing has begun to implement the Beijing VW diesel standard that is close to the EU standard, with sulfur content lower than 10ppm; Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Nanjing have achieved national standard gasoline. In addition, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong's more than a dozen prefectures have implemented the national standard vehicle oil products since January 1, 2013; however, in other regions, the following three standards are still being used: National gasoline (sulfur content below 150 ppm). The upgrading of diesel is even more sluggish, and many countries still use the national standard. "Now on the road to see those behind the buttocks smoky cars, basically those who use diesel heavy trucks, buses." An Xun Sixiwang energy analyst Chu Jie Wang said.

"If oil products and new vehicles are upgraded from the national standard to the national standard at the same time, the pollution of tail gas can be reduced by about 50%." Xinhua quoted Cai Zhigang, deputy director of the Department of Pollution Prevention at Shanghai Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau, as saying yesterday. The economic reference report of the Xinhua News Agency reported in January this year that the relevant authorities are formulating the second public comment on the “Light Vehicle Pollutant Emission Limits and Measurement Methods (China's Fifth Phase)” (Guowu Automobile Standard). The national five gasoline standard and the national five diesel standard. The National Automobile Standard 5 applies to light vehicles such as gasoline vehicles and diesel vehicles, and incorporates particulate matter such as PM2.5 into the pollutant control project.

However, since the implementation of the National First Automobile Standard in 2000, petrochemical companies have never had oil supply synchronized. "It is not once or twice that there is no standard oil." Chu Jiewang said, “The focus of this meeting is on the diesel sector. There was no such clear timeline for diesel. It is much more difficult for diesel to meet the National IV standard than gasoline, because the gasoline itself is light from the point of view of refinery. Quality, simple desulfurization; diesel heavy, remove the sulfur whether it is technical requirements, or cost, are higher than gasoline."

According to one oil refiner, the more fundamental problem is that many of the oils that China smelts are inherently heavy and have high sulphur content. Therefore, it is difficult to achieve high environmental standards. "However, from a technical point of view, this is achievable, and the key is to look at the cost." Previously, a refinery technician with a capacity of 10 million tons of refining capacity told the Morning Post reporter that from the experience of previous oil upgrades, the country is mentioning The price is only digesting 70 to 80% of the incremental costs, and the rest is borne by the company.

Taking the cost of gasoline as an example, Sinopec experts stated that Shanghai's oil products have been directly upgraded from State II to State IV, and the cost per ton of gasoline has increased by 580 yuan. In the past few years, the oil refining companies have suffered long-term losses and conducted large-scale technological transformations. This is no small financial pressure. According to Zhuo Chuang Information, if the “three barrels of oil” upgrades all gasoline and diesel standards from State III to State IV, it may be necessary to increase input of more than RMB 50 billion. If this cost is completely transferred to the end sales, the price of oil per liter may be higher. Rose more than 0.5 yuan.

However, an industry source said, “Refining companies say so, but for now, the price given by the country in high-standard oil products is quite reasonable. According to the data we have, it is lower than the production standard. Oils and high-standard oils have higher profits, so new refineries are actually motivated to produce high-standard oils. On the contrary, those old refineries that require secondary transformation and upgrading in order to produce high-standard oils, The economics of production are much weaker and there is no incentive to produce."

According to calculations, the price difference between the Beijing Five and the National Three standards is 472 yuan/ton, the price difference between Shanghai's four standard gasoline and the national standard is 393 yuan/ton, and the difference between the Guangzhou Yue four gasoline and the national three gasoline is 387 yuan/ton. .

● Who consumes the bill?

The executive meeting of the State Council requires that “accelerating the upgrading of domestic oil refineries and ensuring that the qualified oil products are supplied on time according to the upgrade of gasoline and diesel standards. PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC must first complete the transformation task on schedule. Accelerate the research and development and application of related technologies for automotive engines.” As for the timetable for the upgrade, Chujie Wang said that it was higher than expected, and the pressure on refiners was not small.

"Before the end of 2014, it will be difficult for the country's diesel oil to meet the National IV standard. This will not only require PetroChina and Sinopec to meet the standards, local refineries will also have to meet the standard. Now many local gasoline refiners can not even reach the country's gasoline. "Chu Jiwang said, "It is not realistic to implement State V at the end of 2017, mainly because of economic and technical problems."

Chu Jiewang said that the two major oils are listed companies, and there are pressures on profit indicators every year. Therefore, gradual improvement is more in their interest. One-time big investment, financial statements will be ugly. It is worth noting that the executive meeting of the State Council mentioned that “according to the principles of reasonable compensation costs, high quality and preferential prices, and polluter pays, we should reasonably determine refined oil prices and improve subsidies for difficult groups and public welfare industries.”

Chu Jiewang stated, “We must improve the quality of oil products. Then the two oils must be passed on to consumers. Whoever uses them and who will bear the costs are also a promising way for the country. In the process of oil upgrading, the state will not Make too many subsidies.” Such views are not a single word. The outside world has long heard that the cost of oil upgrades should be borne by consumers. If the state subsidizes the country, it is tantamount to the people of the country who are subsidized to drive. This is unreasonable. If the petrochemical companies are allowed to bear too much burden, the "two major oils" will become the biggest obstacle to the introduction of new standards.

Although raising the price of high-quality oil products is in the interests of refiners, there are also marginal problems. Chu Jiewang stated that “the country’s setting the price of refined oil too high is not a good thing for the two major oils. On the one hand, it will affect sales. On the other hand, if it is too high, the advantages of imported refined oil will be there. Under the circumstances, it is very difficult for a refinery company to claim that the cost of refining is much more or less certain.

However, some people raised their own concerns about the price increase of oil products. Those who hold this view believe that oil prices cannot rise when they want to rise. They must accept external supervision, spread the books, increase the cost, and what part is borne by the consumer. It is necessary to make it clear and to initiate hearing procedures when necessary. To increase its transparency. (Editor's Note: The Legal Daily reported earlier that during the recent revision of national standards for vehicle gasoline, the main drafting unit was precisely the Petrochemical Research Institute of China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation. Of the 37 standard-setters, 26 were from petroleum and petrochemical systems. .)

Even without considering who will bear the costs, the upgrading of oil quality will take some time. The production of up to standard oil products must rely on hydrogenation equipment. The reactor manufacturing cycle can be as long as 18 months. It also takes time for the environmental protection ministry's environmental assessment, the development and reform commission approval process, and preliminary design and construction. It will take some time for all ordinary oil products in the oil tanks to be replaced with gasoline for vehicle use, as well as to meet the national logistics capacity for transporting the country's four gasoline.

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