·Five keywords to understand the Chinese auto market in the first half of the year

In the first half of 2015, looking at the world, the most eye-catching is the Chinese stock market, which is ups and downs and thrilling. However, China's auto market has also taken a lot of play, from the "open door" of sales at the beginning of the year to the "down year-on-year decline", car manufacturers and dealers are experiencing a huge test.
China's auto market has shifted from high-speed growth to micro-growth. Despite the overall slowdown in auto market growth, there are still new forces in China's auto market, such as SUVs and new energy vehicles.
Keyword 1: Speed ​​reduction According to the latest statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in the first half of the year were 12.095 million and 11.83 million, respectively, up 2.6% and 1.4% year-on-year. It is estimated that the annual automobile sales will increase by 3% year-on-year, reaching the 21st century. The lowest level since.
According to the National Information Center, from 2001 to 2010, the average growth rate of the Chinese passenger car market was 33%. Beginning in 2011, with the exit of the stimulus policy, the sales growth of the passenger car market suddenly dropped to 8.9%, and in 2012 it fell to 6.8%. In 2013, relying on luxury cars, the growth rate of the passenger car market reached 18%, and in 2014 it fell to about 7%.
Keyword 2: The price war in the price-cutting market is staged every year, especially this year. In April, Shanghai Volkswagen launched the “price reduction” initiative, setting off the most “price war” in China’s auto market in the past 10 years. Shanghai GM, Changan Ford, Beijing Hyundai and GAC Toyota all fought to launch various promotions to try to gather popularity. Get more market share and seek sales support for the second half of the year.
The joint venture brand official fell, directly impacted the independent car companies, the Great Wall and other brands also began to officially drop. It is foreseeable that as a large number of new models are about to enter the market, the price war in the domestic auto market will intensify in the second half of the year.
Keyword three: SUV
The SUV model is still the brightest star in the Chinese car market night. Whether it is a joint venture brand or a self-owned brand, it is almost a big cake. Car companies are racing to expand their production capacity or adjust their production lines, hoping to gain a bigger share in this high-growth market segment.
According to the latest data released by the Association, the sales of SUVs in January-June 2015 was 2,661,200 units, an increase of 45.94% year-on-year, accounting for 26.36% of the sales volume of passenger vehicles. From the current domestic car market production and sales trends, SUV models will also be the main force supporting the development of the Chinese auto market.
Keyword 4: Explosive growth With the intensive policy of China's new energy vehicles, whether it is a foreign luxury brand or a self-owned brand, or a joint venture brand, it is unprecedented in the display of new energy and smart models. The sudden emergence of new energy vehicle sales has become a bright spot in the current depressed car market. According to the latest data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of the year, 76,223 new energy vehicles were produced, with sales of 72,711 vehicles, up 2.5 times and 2.4 times respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 49,092 and 46,219 respectively, up 3 times and 2.9 times respectively. The production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 27,181 and 26,492 respectively, up 2 times and 1.9 times respectively.
Keyword 5: Inventory Crisis The China Automobile Dealers Association recently announced that the “China Automobile Dealer Inventory Warning Index” was 64.6% in June, up 7.3 percentage points from the previous month. This set of data is a footnote for car dealers facing the biggest dilemma. In the market environment, the dealer inventory pressure has not been fundamentally improved, and it has been running at a high level above the warning line for many months.
The high inventory of dealers is partly because the market suddenly turns down; more importantly, car companies face fierce changes in the market environment, have not adjusted their previous business policies, and adjusted production plans. The high inventory pressure of dealers has intensified the contradiction between dealers and car companies, which also caused the game between dealers and car companies to continue again at the end of last year.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2015, China's auto companies plan to add 2.68 million new units, with a total capacity of 38.10 million units. However, the industry expects only 26.4 million vehicles in 2015, which will result in an inventory of 11.7 million vehicles. If car companies are unable to adjust their business plans in a timely manner, how to maintain the existing dealer system will become a huge challenge.
The car market is not good, can you really blame the stock market?

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