Survey on Current Status of China's Electric Vehicles: Four Major Challenges for Industrial Development (I)

At the just-convened Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Conference, 220 electric vehicles are previewing the future. There is no doubt that the R&D of new energy vehicles will be a sustainable power revolution that will affect the future of mankind. In China, which has the highest demand for electric cars and the world’s largest auto market, electric vehicles are rushing into the heat wave.

As a result, there are both speculative gold diggers and tireless hard-working people, either impetuous or low-key, looking for their respective roles on the electric vehicle stage. One fact that cannot be ignored is that Chinese electric vehicles are far from the same starting line with foreign countries as they are in legends, but they are still different from international advanced technologies. There are multiple challenges.

2800 yuan behind the auto show tickets: China's strange situation of electric vehicles, "Who has seen a car show tickets 2,800 yuan a?!" Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Conference the day before the opening, Miss Gao changed his MSN signature into this sentence.

As a public relations officer at a Japanese car company, Miss Gao is struggling to get tickets for the opening ceremony of the World Electric Vehicles Conference on November 7. In her company, many executives from Japan want to take a look at the wind in the Chinese electric car industry. However, she found that, in addition to invited guests and limited media personnel, in the opening ceremony venue that accommodates 1,000 people, other participants need to purchase tickets for 2,800 yuan.

2800 yuan, a price, not late. The organizing committee said that this is a package, not only including the opening ceremony, but also listening to government heavyweight guest speeches, related forums, and several meals, etc. There are many buyers.

Looking at it now, it does not make sense to discuss whether the organizing committee will use this to make money. Too many multinational auto giants, Chinese automakers, and even foreign automakers all want to listen to the trends in the electric vehicle industry, especially the voice of China, the world's largest auto market. It is likely that once a critical judgment is made, the future of the company will be directly determined.

Obviously, holding the world electric car conference in China where the electric car has the loudest appeal can be described as just happening. Under the international environment for dealing with climate change, the world is fully deploying the development and application of low-carbon technologies. Electric vehicle technology is undoubtedly one of the pivotal technologies. With the vigorous promotion of the Chinese government, the heat waves of electric vehicles are blowing and the market is emitting a strong temptation.

Walking around in the Shenzhen World Electric Vehicles Exhibition Hall, many people feel that they are "drinking their heads." The original multinational auto giants have already completed their formations, and various electric vehicles are too numerous to mention; there are so many battery manufacturers that have a large number of people; the original sci-fi story will stop the car with a beam of light. Wirelessly-charged devices have long since entered the reality; the original...

In the end, apart from “eye-opener”, you will find that the legendary development of China's electric vehicles and overseas standing on a starting line seems to be wrong, and the technical gap is not a star. More importantly, because the battery and infrastructure are still not fully laid out, the era of electric vehicles will not come in the last year or two. Even overseas, including a clear electric vehicle technology roadmap has not yet been formed.

However, in the face of such facts, in the past two years, China's auto industry has a "strange situation" - in the new energy vehicle industry, which is full of uncertainty, blindly behind the hot industry can not hide the hectic. There are hundreds of thousands of vehicles in various new energy industrial bases, but they ignore the fact that China's key components, such as batteries and motors, are far from mature. The large-scale production lines are almost blank.

What is more serious is that in some places, the trend of politicization, hollowing, and blindness has become apparent. Local governments and enterprises are often more willing to invest in manufacturing, ignoring upstream technology research and development, supporting core components, and real business downstream.

This is not to say that it is opposed to the development of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles.

On the contrary, like many people, I have been convinced that new energy vehicles will have a good spring in China, and with huge market opportunities, China may indeed become the birthplace of a new industry wave.

But the question is whether we are too impatient? The "Great Leap Forward" and the "fake air" are encouraged in the absence of certain technical directions, standards, etc., which will really affect the judgment of reality.

Especially for the most popular pure electric vehicles, a data given by the President of Volkswagen China is intriguing. He said that international judgments about low-carbon cleanliness are related to CO2 emissions. According to the EU and China's energy structure data, one estimate is: According to the EU's energy structure in 2007, the total CO2 emissions of a pure electric vehicle is 88%. According to China's energy structure in 2009, the total CO2 emissions of a pure electric vehicle is 140 g/km. The latter is almost comparable to traditional cars.

The reason is simple: EU nuclear power generates more power, while China still focuses on thermal power generation. The implication is that if the energy structure dominated by thermal power in China does not change, pure electric vehicles will be unable to speak of low carbon in the entire energy chain.

In fact, the industrialization process of any new industry is long and pragmatic. The same is true for new energy vehicles. The government hopes to use new energy vehicles to realize the curve crossing, which will change from a large automobile consumer country to a manufacturing powerhouse. However, it is obviously not feasible to ignore infrastructure construction and real technological innovation.

Everyone now sees the huge business opportunities in the new energy automotive industry represented by electric vehicles. Each car company feels that the opportunity is its own. But chances are actually only a few people who are prepared. Before the electric vehicle industry really matures, there will be some rounds of fierce competition. Opportunities will only belong to those companies that have technology, management, and perseverance.

Electric car gold surge: impetuous is not a problem?

On November 5, heavy rains began in Shenzhen. Li Xingguang stood in front of the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center and anxiously waited for a friend to help him “arrange” an electric vehicle conference admission card. Shenzhen Pengyuan Electronics Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Pengyuan Electronics”) served by Li Xingguang did not participate in the Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Conference which was opened on the 5th. However, he still rushed to the scene with rain and hoped to discover new ones in this exhibition. Customers and orders.

At the same time, more than 410 automotive electronics related companies and nearly 2,000 staff gathered in the pavilion. In narrow partitions, they are constantly distributing company brochures or talking loudly with the resident. The entire exhibition hall is like a job fair and it's noisy. Among these companies are global parts giant Bosch, multinational automotive company Volkswagen, world-renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs Group, Chinese car company Chery, and many unknown domestic electronic components companies in China.

They all have a common purpose: gold scooters.

Gold Rush Electric Car In 2009, Li Gang (a pseudonym) left the previous work unit and set up a parts and components company in Wuhu, Anhui Province, which was specially designed for the local Chery New Energy Automobile Company. The rise of the electric car in 2009 created the birth of numerous gold diggers. Li Gang is just one case in point.

“If you look at those listed companies, as long as they have a relationship with the concept of new energy, the share price will go up.” A senior company in a battery company in Hunan told the reporter of the “First Financial Daily” that when the company entered the automotive lithium battery market in 2008, There are only five or six major domestic competitors. Now, hundreds of new electric vehicle support companies have emerged in Wuhu, Anhui, Changsha, Sichuan, and Chongqing. The Nuggets electric car is the original impulse of each company.

In the Shenzhen World Electric Vehicle Assembly Hall, a staff member of China Electric Vehicles is promoting a Chinese electric car painted as a “big face” beside him. “Don't look at it being small. You can go up to 100 km/h and charge it once. Electricity can run 200 kilometers." Allegedly, the Chinese pure electric car was independently developed by Hebei Langfang Dachang. The car project has been contracted to settle in Chaobaihe Industrial Park, Dachang, Hebei Province.

At the World Electric Vehicle Conference, the most frequently occurring products are those products brought by these unknown companies. The Shandong Dongfan Didong Vehicle Company exhibited three-wheeled and four-wheeled electric vehicles that can only take one person. According to the company’s staff, three-wheeled electric vehicles are priced at just over 10,000 yuan, and are popular among ordinary customers.

"The real mass production (electric car) is not much, many are to do site vehicles, golf carts." After visiting a full exhibition hall, Pengyuan electronic sales manager Li Xingguang told this reporter.

Pengyuan Electronics is an electronic component company in Shenzhen. Its main products are single-tube, diode and power management ICs, power modules and other products. Among the country's more than 8,000 electronic component companies, Pengyuan Electronics can only be regarded as a small and medium-sized enterprise. Its main customers are Huawei and ZTE and other IT companies. However, even IT-like electronic components companies have tried to dig a bucket of gold in the Chinese electric car tide.

Compared with Shandong Yifan Didong and Shenzhen Pengyuan Electronics, the electric car company Gaozhan Group, which is invested by global investment bank Goldman Sachs, is an “alternative” at the world electric car conference. From November 5th to November 6th, Gao Xiang Jin Electric Motor Co., Ltd. Executive Director Zeng Xiangzhao successively signed two single agreements, one of which was an order agreement with Chery Automobile and plans to purchase 100 Chery pure electric vehicles M1-EV.

"The initial investment is about 200 million yuan, and the 12 to 13-year payback period is planned, and the annual return rate will be 6% to 7%." Zeng Xiangxi told this reporter. Gaozhan Electric Vehicle was established in 2009. Its business model is based on integrated solutions, cooperation with local governments and enterprises, and the promotion of local GDP growth in the future, in exchange for local electric vehicle rental, distribution, and charging operations and other service markets.

Impetuosity is not a problem?

According to data from the organizer of the Shenzhen Electric Vehicles Conference, the exhibition attracted more than 50 automotive companies and 360 related companies. The company categories include electronic components manufacturers, electric vehicle charging facility manufacturers, system providers, and solution providers. Vehicle manufacturers, investment banks, etc., an embarrassing electric car gold surge is coming.

"Twenty years ago it was like this (discussing the feasibility of electric vehicles.) But how many big companies and OEMs are involved in electric vehicles today? This has never happened before." Taiwan Huachuang Electric Vehicle R&D General Manager Ren Yonggeng said in an interview with the media.

Behind the gold rush is a large amount of capital flock to the electric car market. According to China's new energy development plan announced in October, China will accumulatively increase investment by 5 trillion yuan in total from 2011 to 2020, and increase the output value by 1.5 trillion yuan annually. The data from the US Pew Research Center shows that in 2009, the world’s investment in new energy exceeded US$162 billion, of which China topped the list with US$36.4 billion. The US Department of Commerce predicts that China's new energy market will reach 100 billion U.S. dollars in 2020.

Bosch China stated that the Bosch Group's annual investment in new energy vehicle research is 400 million euros, and this investment has continued for several years. Bosch's ambition is to provide customers with a complete set of pure electric and hybrid vehicle powertrain and management solutions, and continue to maintain its global leadership.

However, according to a report from the China Investment Adviser, the number of newly-added lithium battery companies in China was about 1,500 in 2009, but only 100 are actually active in the market. This means that more capital is used to hype concepts rather than actual investment. Is it too impetuous and aggressive to create another bubble?

“Being an electric car is a difficult process and it will take many years. (Some companies) may seem impetuous now. There is actually no problem because it can help spread out the infrastructure and contribute to the development of the environment. But ultimately it can be achieved. The successful companies are those who are meticulous in their pursuit of technology,” said Yuan Tao, general manager of Chery’s new energy vehicle company.

Geely: not seeking quantity but seeking pragmatism Geely in this world electric car show, took out new ones including IG solar electric vehicles, EK-2 panda high-performance electric vehicles, GPEC plug-in hybrid vehicles and GSG Geely smart start-stop system Energy models.

A group of Geely people admitted to the "First Financial Daily" that although new energy vehicles are hot spots in the industry, they still have a lot of significance in terms of commercialization compared with traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. Geely's current new energy technologies tend to be practical. From the perspective of commercialization, this electric vehicle show reflects Geely's new energy vehicle layout in the three phases of the near-far COSCO Group. Among them, the earliest commercial application should be the GSG idle start and stop. The system will be equipped with the Geely Emgrand EC718RV model in 2011.

As a mid-term goal, the EK-2 Panda Electric Vehicle uses a lithium iron phosphate battery, with an energy consumption of 16 degrees per 100 kilometers, a maximum speed of 150 kilometers per hour, a cruising range of 180 kilometers, and a fast charge in 18 minutes. 80% of electricity. The solar battery car IG is Geely's conception of a long-term new energy car. Solar batteries are placed on top of it and can be driven by solar energy.