At present, China's steel industry faces both the opportunities for structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and the challenges of rising resource prices, slowing demand growth and increasing environmental pressure. At a critical juncture where pressure and challenges coexist, how can the Chinese steel industry cope with challenges and face difficulties in development? The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the “Twelfth Five-year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industryâ€, which indicates the direction for the development of China's steel industry in recent years. Unicycle Electric Balance Scooter similar
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Iron and steel companies bitter cold winter
The persistently negative decline that began in December last year made investors once again smell the "bear market" atmosphere, and the recent sharp increase in net stocks has also confirmed the weak market.
Statistics show that as of Monday's close, there have been 133 companies in the two cities breaking the net, and in early December last year the company broke less than 100 companies. In just over a month, the number of net-breaking companies in the two cities increased by 34, an increase of over 34%. In the latest net-breaking companies, the top 20 companies with the highest percentage of net-breaking were *ST Angang, Hebei Iron and Steel, Huatai, Nanshan Aluminum, Maanshan Iron & Steel, New Steel, Benxi Iron & Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel and Hualing. Steel, Baosteel, Anyang Iron and Steel, Fujian-Guangdong Expressway, Taigang Stainless, Yueyang Linzhi, China Railway, Chenming Paper, Linggang, China Shipping Development, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, China Communications, including *ST Angang, Hebei The proportion of steel net-breaking is more than 50%; the lowest rate of China's cross-border construction is also 31.96%. From the industry point of view, steel, paper, infrastructure, railway transportation, and shipping accounted for most of the seats, of which steel broke the net with the largest number, up to 11 companies.
In recent years, due to factors such as macro-control, the degree of prosperity of the steel industry has continued to decline. Earlier this year, with the approach of the traditional winter storage season, steel futures prices fell rapidly, indicating that the market's cautious expectation of future demand and traders' initiative in winter storage are insufficient. According to the reporter’s understanding of the situation of several large steel trading companies in East China, the current economic prosperity of the steel trade industry is worse than a year, and steel traders’ willingness to purchase has fallen to freezing point. The root cause of this phenomenon is that most domestic banks substantially tightened their credit lines for steel trading companies. At the same time, the decline in steel market demand and the decline in ton steel profits to historical lows have also brought the industry into a thin and dangerous situation. More and more steel traders withdrew from this market with a sense of desperation, and companies that continue to adhere to them generally adopt a "low inventory" strategy, weakening the strength of seasonal steel stockpiling and reducing the pressure on capital occupation.
GF Securities researcher Feng Gangyong told reporters that supply and demand are affected by weak factors. In the first quarter of this year, the booming of the steel industry will remain low. From the supply side, the off-season effect and environmental protection supervision will continue to curb the production capacity of steel mills. From the demand side, the new orders index will fall significantly after the seasonal adjustment, and the new export order index will show high passivation after the seasonal adjustment, indicating the steel market. Both the demand side and the export side have contracted, and the leading indicator of terminal fitting consumption indicates that future downstream demand will remain stable.
The Status of Domestic Iron and Steel Industry Observing the rules of iron ore price fluctuations in 2013, it is not difficult to find that the price of imported ore shows significant resilience, the import mines follow the characteristics of domestic steel products with limited decline, and positive reaction to rising prices; the reason for imported iron ore will also be resisted. Constraining the decline in iron ore prices before the Spring Festival, in the second half of the year, the price of foreign minerals has shown significant resilience in the vicinity of 120 US dollars. Therefore, although it is not difficult to rise before the Spring Festival, it is also difficult to fall.
From the demand of steel mills, China's steel mills have long been reduced to “miners wage earnersâ€, but high production capacity determines China's dependence on foreign mining, coupled with the limited number of Chinese overseas rights ore mines, domestic mines barely meet domestic demand of nearly 50%. The use rate of scrap is less than 20%, and the increase in imports is still maintained in 2014, so the fall in imported ore prices will continue.
Japan and South Korea's steel mills maintain a high level of operation, and European steel mills have also shown signs of a steady improvement. The international credit rating agency Moody's raised the outlook for the European steel sector from "negative" to "stable." Since October 2011, Moody's outlook for the European steel sector has been "negative."
Therefore, in the future, the steel industry will still maintain a high level and support the iron ore price, which will also benefit the profitability of the ore shareholders (big consortia).
From the perspective of pricing power, although the attention of the domestic iron ore index in the domestic market has increased, but the international prestige can not compete with the Platts index, China can be successfully listed on the iron ore futures delivery, but are encountered by the three major ore giants, although Helps steel mills avoid some of the risks, but cannot increase China's pricing rights and interests in the short term. The shipping market is also controlled by the three major miners. Steel prices for shipping companies in China are even less dominant, especially imported Brazilian mines. Import prices; and the world's three major iron ore trade volume accounted for more than 70%. The resource monopoly has made it difficult to improve the pricing power in the short term. The pricing power still depends on the proportion of equity and mines and the strength of domestic industry consolidation. In 2014, the cost predicament of steel mills continued to constrain the profitability of the company.
In terms of seasonality, domestic steel mills have the possibility of increasing the inventory cycle of raw materials such as iron ore, and the overall scale of port stocks is slightly lower. The frequency of uncertainties such as seasonal weather in Australia and the Brazilian flood before and after the Spring Festival is also high. In the hair cycle, if the scope of the influence of uncertain factors is enlarged, it may affect the sailing schedule. At that time, the market atmosphere is not conducive to the decline of imported ore prices.
In light of the analysis of the subject matter, before the Spring Festival, iron ore futures do not have the possibility of deep decline at the moment, so it is more difficult to short the trend, short-selling only belongs to the small-band thinking; wait for the price to break through and do more opportunities after standing on the 20-day moving average .