Parts Of Construction Machinery Our company mainly produces Parts Of Construction Machinery ,Forklift Castings,Alloy Casting,Mining Machinery Parts,cast iron steel material can do, can do cast steel bucket tooth forklift counterweight and other products, long-term supply to domestic well-known enterprises.
Construction machinery including excavator machinery lifting machinery concrete machinery, etc., the above castings can be cast
Parts Of Construction Machinery,Forklift Castings,Alloy Casting,Mining Machinery Parts Baizhu Network Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.baizhunet.com
Safeguarding Domestic Fertilizer Supply Currently, the rapid increase in domestic fertilizer prices has both the reasons for the pull of export demand and the factors for cost promotion. The first is due to the cost of pulling. Specifically, the rise in coal prices directly boosts the price of nitrogen fertilizers. The increase in phosphate fertilizers is due to the fact that sulfur and ammonium phosphates have been at high levels and are continuously climbing. Compound fertilizers are also a cost issue for ammonium and potassium fertilizers. The reason for the increase in potash fertilizer is that potash resources are mainly concentrated in the hands of a few companies, such as Potashcorp, Mosaic, and Uralkaly. In China, Salt Lake potash (love stocks, prices, information) also controls more than 50% of resources. The second is the export factor. If the production cost rises, if there is an export route, the price will definitely refer to the international high price trend. It is undeniable that exports have a positive effect on the prices of domestic fertilizer market.
People in the industry believe that the increase of 100% of the export tariff will basically block the gate of fertilizer exports. For urea, the current domestic factory ceiling price is 1,725 ​​yuan / ton, plus 135% of the export tariff is 4053.75 yuan / ton, equivalent to US $ 579 / ton, which means that only when the international urea rose to 600 US dollars / More than tons, there will be room for profit from exports. For phosphorus compound fertilizer, the maximum price of domestic diammonium phosphate is RMB 4,100/ton, and due to rising raw material prices, according to the market conditions at the end of March, sulfur price is RMB 5,000/ton (to the factory price, the same below). , Synthetic ammonia is 3300 yuan / ton; phosphate ore 100 yuan / ton (calculated by its own mining companies, this fee is only for mining costs and short-distance gas freight), only these three items, each producing a ton of diammonium phosphate Need to spend 3100 yuan, the full cost of 4100 ~ 4300 yuan / ton. If a government limit is imposed, most companies will suffer losses. If calculated according to the ex-factory price of 4,400 yuan/ton, plus 135% of the export tariff will reach 10,340 yuan/ton, equivalent to US$ 1,477/ton, which means that only when the international price rises to around 1,500 US dollars/ton There is room for export profit.
From the perspective of international food prices, international fertilizer prices are unlikely to rise to this price. As a result, the gate of fertilizer exports was completely blocked, which means that the entire domestic production will be digested at home. Therefore, the domestic supply of fertilizer will gradually increase, and then there will be surplus.
Suppression of domestic fertilizer prices has not driven by the export demand, domestic fertilizer prices will gradually return to a reasonable level.
How much is the urea ex-factory price reasonable? To be sure, it is less likely to fall within the national ceiling price of 1,725 ​​yuan/ton. For urea production enterprises, the current price limit of 1,725 ​​yuan/ton is no longer practical, because at least half of the domestic production capacity of chemical fertilizers exceeds 1,725 ​​yuan, including Sinopec (including stocks, quotation, and information). Ton. The actual situation is that in addition to the three major companies, PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC (quotations, information, and commentary), and companies that enjoy government subsidies such as Shanhua and Suihua, can strictly enforce the national limit price. Most companies are based on production costs and market conditions to determine the ex-factory price. Companies that lose money on sales will not do it unless market conditions force it to stop production. At a recent meeting held in Shandong Province on the key economic operation of fertilizer companies, urea enterprises in Shandong Province generally reflect the current ex-factory price has seriously deviated from the cost, strongly demand adjustment of urea ex-factory price, from the original 1500 yuan (tons, up and down 15%) adjustment For 1700 yuan (ton price, up and down 15%), that is, the highest ex-factory price adjusted to 1955 yuan / ton. On the other hand, without the pull of export demand, domestic urea resources will be surplus, and the decline in market prices is an inevitable trend. However, it is difficult to draw conclusions on what level it can drop to. According to preliminary estimates, compared with the ex-factory price of RMB 2150 to RMB 2,200/ton during the peak period of the previous period, the price reduction will probably be between RMB 200 and RMB 400/ton but will not be lower than RMB 1750/ton.
The same applies to phosphate fertilizers, which also involve the issue of production costs. After the special export tariffs are imposed, the possibility of export of phosphate fertilizers is temporarily blocked and prices will fall. However, due to the limited domestic demand, the production of phosphate fertilizer will also shrink accordingly. In fact, most of the domestic phosphate fertilizer manufacturers have a certain scale, such as Guizhou Hongfu, Yunnan Sanhuan, and Yihua, etc. There is plenty of room for adjustment of production capacity. By reducing production capacity, it is possible to control less or no imported raw materials, thereby reducing production costs. On the other hand, enterprises can also reduce production through negotiations, tighten resources and stabilize prices at a certain level to reduce losses. It is estimated that the price of high concentration of diammonium phosphate (64% content) will not be lower than 4,000 yuan/ton.
After the farmers are expected to obtain benefits and impose high tariffs, enterprises will no longer have profitable space for the export of chemical fertilizers, and their enthusiasm for export will be curbed, so that the supply of domestic fertilizer will be sufficient, prices will fall, and farmers will receive a certain degree of benefits.
From a quantitative point of view, as of April 20, the spring sowing in most parts of the north has ended, and the peak season for farmers to use fertilizer has passed, and the amount of fertilizer used in this period accounts for 40 to 60% of the total amount of fertilizer used in the whole year; April In early June, fertilization accounts for 30% of fertilizers in the topdressing period; in the early autumn of October, about 30% of fertilizers will be used in autumn. For the southern rice growing areas, spring plowing in March, and transplanting in April to early May, this stage belongs to the stage of concentrated fertilizer, the amount of fertilizer used accounts for about 30% of the total amount of fertilizer used in the whole year; the late stage fertilizer and double cropping rice planting Fertilizers such as rice transplanters account for 70%. Therefore, by the time the special export tariffs were introduced on April 20, about one-third of China’s fertilizer had been applied, and the percentage of fertilizer prepared by farmers was even higher, but there were still nearly two-thirds of the year. Fertilizer consumption under the control of national macroeconomic policies, farmers should be able to enjoy the benefits of this policy - fertilizer prices.
However, how much can fertilizer prices be reduced? This depends on three factors: the inventory of fertilizers, the manufacturers' willingness to produce, and the enthusiasm of dealers to get goods.
First, inventory factors. It should be said that the north has continued until the beginning of June in the fertilizer season. The rice production areas in the south have been using fertilizer almost throughout the year. Manufacturers' stocks may only gradually increase after June, but can they rise and rise, but also Depends on the manufacturer's willingness to produce.
Second, the manufacturers' willingness to produce. This has a problem of a break-even point. If the country’s price-limiting measures are strict enough for manufacturers to sell at a loss, who is willing to produce? To take a step back, even if the government closes one eye to the ceiling price of 1,725 ​​yuan/ton, it depends on whether the market price is higher than the manufacturer's production cost and there is no profit. Without profit, it is difficult for manufacturers to maintain production, at least not mass production, and once the manufacturers choose to stop production or limit production, the entire social inventory will not rise.
Third, the enthusiasm of dealers for stocking. As the saying goes, buying does not buy up. If fertilizer prices fall, most dealers will adopt a wait-and-see attitude, causing manufacturers to warehouse, which will cause prices to fall faster. The faster the market prices fall, the more manufacturers will stop production or reduce production. It is expected that social stocks will be in late July to early August. After reaching the highest, it will slowly decrease afterwards. From the end of August to the beginning of September, the price will bottom out. The extent of the decline is not a good estimate, but it is foreseeable that SMEs with production costs above 1,800 yuan/ton will have to stop production except for Sinopec.
Analysis on the Effect of Implementing New Tariff Policy of Chemical Fertilizer
The introduction of new tariffs will help the domestic chemical fertilizer market to provide adequate supply and stabilize the market price of chemical fertilizers. At the same time, farmers will also be able to get a certain degree of benefits and stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain.