The rubber industry must transform to adapt to the "new normal"

“The era of rapid development of the rubber industry has ended. Since 2012, the development of the rubber industry has entered a new phase of slower growth, showing new trends and characteristics of normal development.” World Rubber 2014 held on October 15 At the forum and information conference, Deng Yachen, president of the China Rubber Industry Association, said that under the “new normal”, the rubber industry should actively consider the direction and ideas of development mode change, structural adjustment and reform and innovation, and make corresponding adjustments to adapt to the “new”. "Normal" brings about changes in the business development environment.

The slowdown in growth rate slowdown is the operating performance under the “new normal”

The growth rate of the industry-wide growth rate can be clearly seen from the industry output value and sales revenue growth rate of the China Rubber Association. In 2012, the two values ​​decreased steeply from 16.97% and 17.5% in 2011 to 0.01% and 1.89%; in 2013, they were 3.8% and 2.13%; from January to August this year, they were 3.37% and 0.09%, and the rate of increase decreased by 1.52 from the first quarter. And 2.22 percentage points, down 1.06 and 1.65 percentage points from the same period last year. The output of tires was 270 million, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year; the industry's profits increased by 7.95%, and the growth rate dropped by 15 percentage points. Tire profit rose 3.8%, an increase of 26.6 percentage points year-on-year.

Deng Yaxi said that the “new normal” of the rubber industry has performed in four aspects: First, the shift in the economic growth rate of the industry has dropped, from the high growth rate of about 20% in the past to the single digit growth rate of 5% or less in the past three years. Second, structural adjustment has become the main task of industry development. The adjustment of product structure, raw material structure and market structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded. Third, the development momentum will shift from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven; from the growth of the number to quality growth, service growth and "green" growth. Fourth, some problems covered by the original high-speed growth will be exposed during this period. Some uncertain risks will be manifested, and development will face new challenges and new opportunities.

Deng Yalu believes that behind the increase in prices and prices, there is a collision between the development environment of the industry and changes in the conditions of development and the contradictions that the industry has accumulated over the years. At present, domestic and foreign economies have entered a period of deep adjustment. The market demand for products has been buoyant. The prices of rubber raw materials have fluctuated at low levels and uncertainties have increased. At the same time, the cost of various factors has increased. As for tires and other rubber products, there is a prominent contradiction of structural excesses, and competition for homogeneity is severe, and price wars of various types occur in time.

“China’s tire production capacity already has the strength. At present, the production capacity of several companies in the top 10 in China has been able to rank among the top ten in the world. However, due to the price war in the domestic market and the cruel competition, even the competition in the international market is mostly yellow skin. His own brother, whose prices cannot be sold, is subject to trade barriers,” said Wang Feng, executive chairman of the China Rubber Industry Association Bureau and chairman of Fengshen Tire Co., Ltd.

Liu Haiqing, chairman of the rubber compound tape branch of China Rubber Industry Association and general manager of Qingdao Oak Rubber Belt Co., Ltd., told reporters that the rubber tape industry has experienced rapid development in the past five years. At present, there are more than 370 member companies in the list, and the production capacity accounts for 70% of the country. The number of non-member companies exceeds 1,000. Due to the slowdown in the development of supporting industries such as steel and coal, more than 90% of the orders for conveyor belts are purchased through bidding. The new production capacity of the conveyor belt companies needs to be released. In order to obtain orders, reduce prices, and become increasingly fiercer in the face of declining demand, the top and bottom spreads of the major manufacturers in the first half of this year exceeded 30%.

The supporting raw materials industry and the downstream tire distribution industry are also subject to slowdown in the growth of the tire and product industries. “As we meet the needs of tire companies and increase the supply of carbon black, the new production and operating costs cannot be reflected in the weak sales price of carbon black, nor are they due to differences in the provision of technical services and quality assurance. Due to the price division, the sales price of part of the carbon black companies has a long-term cost inversion phenomenon, and the industry profit margin is about zero. The whole industry is difficult to survive and it is difficult to maintain the current situation.” Chairman of the China Black Rubber Branch of the China Rubber Industry Association, Long Xing Chemical Co., Ltd. Chairman Liu Jiangshan looked helpless.

“By communicating with industry bosses, it is generally reflected that this year is the most difficult year for the tire business, which is obviously more than the time of the 2008 financial crisis.” Bao Renqiao, chairman of Wuhan Tianli Tire Co., Ltd., introduced, first of all, increased pressure on inventory. The company has sales of 800 million to 900 million yuan, but the inventory is 100 million to 200 million yuan. More inventory, and tires continue to reduce prices, resulting in substantial decline in profits. “This will not only affect the economic efficiency of the company, but it will also dampen the confidence of the bosses in doing so. Therefore, they call on the upstream manufacturers to loosen and loosen the association to encourage the association to overcome difficulties.”

Deng Yalu believes that in the coming months, the rubber industry economy will continue its trend since the first half of the year, maintaining slight growth for the whole year, but the situation of increasing prices and decreasing prices of the industry will continue. The production and business risks of enterprises will continue to increase, and the overall operating situation of the industry will be severe. . However, the entire industry and enterprises attach great importance to the contradiction and difficulties in economic operation, and do a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of costs, markets, production, etc., seize the key parts and weaknesses, and actively respond to prevent and resolve production and management risks to ensure the completion of the entire The main objective of the annual economic operation.

The key to adapting to the new normal is to get rid of the dependence on high growth

“The new normal state means that the medium-speed growth of the rubber industry will continue for a long period of time. This will bring about more fierce market competition, accelerate the process of corporate differentiation, and concentrate the market allocation of resources on the dominant companies, with a strong competitive enterprise or group of companies. Accelerate the formation of the next 5 to 10 years, China's rubber industry will reshuffle, survival of the fittest.” Deng Yaxi said.

"China's low tire prices, the overall competitiveness is not strong, because too much attention to the building of production capacity." Wang Feng analysis believes.

“In the first 30 years of development, enterprises enjoy high growth in GDP, but they have not really developed high-tech products. They just follow people behind them, follow suit, engage in more products, engage in less basic research, and earn large profits. Once the foreign markets have been threatened, they will adopt trade protection measures, set up technical barriers, and raise technical barriers.” Yuan Zhongxue, executive deputy director of the State Rubber and Tyre Engineering Technology Research Center and Chairman of the Software Control Co., Ltd. expressed his own View.

“The conveyor belt industry urgently needs to increase the degree of industrial concentration and form a company with a scale of more than 2 billion yuan, or even 3 billion yuan. This will certainly not be the case at the time of competition. Through large group companies to regulate market competition and product standards, and then participate in international competition. Of course, raising the degree of concentration is not a simple issue of scale, but also includes the competitiveness of the brand, the ability to innovate in science and technology, the improvement of the level of equipment, the improvement of management methods, etc.," said Liu Haiqing.

Transformation and innovation are the only way for the development of the industry under the "new normal"

Yuan Zhongxue believes that “in China today, learning and imitating have come to an end, and the population and resource dividends have been almost consumed, and the cost of products is already in the end. The development of the Chinese tire industry in the next round must be based on basic research and common research units. Cooperation, more work."

"Quality can be done well, yes! But can we keep it? In the area of ​​R&D and technological innovation, foreign companies continue to have styles that guide consumption and selling points, and we still only imitate. Some companies are taking OEM processing.' How can we borrow a boat to go to the sea? How long will it take for this stage to form our own brand and build our own channels? With the internationalization of the company, where are our high-end talents?” Faced with the bottleneck in the tire industry With questions about the short board, Wang Feng asked the industry companies.

He suggested that tire companies should enhance their innovation capabilities, increase research and development, promote product transformation and upgrading, promote standard products to high-end products, get rid of dependence on OEM processing, accumulate and enhance high-end brand effects, and improve “Made in China”. Product image; Infiltrate from the replacement market to the matching market, and finally realize the original factory support of high-end products, and become a world-class tire enterprise.

“In response to the current development trend of the conveyor belt industry, the industry will introduce guidance and regulatory measures to promote technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading through technological innovation, and compete with foreign companies. Anhui Zhongyi Tape Company has applied for 20 patents in the first 7 months. There are too few companies," said Liu Haiqing.

According to Wang Weidong, general manager of Shandong Best Chemicals Co., Ltd., in recent years, the company has devoted itself to the research and development of carbon black with high abrasion resistance and high specific surface area and carbon black for high wear and low heat-generating tire treads for green tires. , Walking in the forefront of new carbon black research and development, sales gradually increased, in the general downturn in the carbon black industry, out of a distinctive path.

Deng Yaxi believes that from the past two years or more in the rubber industry, although the economic growth rate has slowed down significantly, the quality and efficiency of economic operations have improved significantly. “How to achieve sustained and healthy development under the 'new normal' of slower growth, rising costs, increasing international competition, outstanding technological innovation capabilities, and stronger market mechanisms. We need to move from factor-driven, investment-driven to innovation-driven; change from quantitative growth. For quality growth, service growth and 'green' growth, adjustments are made to the product structure, raw material structure, and market structure,” Deng Yaxi concluded.