Tesla will not become "Apple" in the automotive world

Xu Heyi, chairman of Beijing Automotive Group, did not hide his views on Tesla at the Auto Industry Forum at the 2014 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia. "Tesla will not become an apple in the automotive world," he said.

Zhu Fushou, general manager of Dongfeng Motor, repeated the same point in the same sentence: “Elon Musk (President of Tesla) will not become Jobs in the automotive industry.” Zhu Fushou believes that Tesla’s success is artificial Exaggerated, it can cause such a high degree of attention in China, due to the public's fear of PM2.5.

The bottleneck of electric vehicles The attitude of Chinese traditional car manufacturers to Tesla reflects the current embarrassing situation of pure electric vehicle industry from a side.

Xu Hei believes that Tesla has no essential breakthrough in technology, which determines that it cannot become a true “subversive” in the industry.

Zhu Fushou believes that the pure electric vehicles represented by Tesla still have a long way to go to solve the problems of battery cost, performance and safety. He said: “Thirty-five years ago, the voice of new energy vehicles was once very high, but the actual situation after several years of operation was not satisfactory. The fundamental reason that Tesla recently received attention was that PM2.5 re-emphasized environmental issues. ”

Zhu Fushou introduced that in the past year, all new energy vehicles, including pure electric vehicles, produced and sold only 17,900 vehicles in China, an increase of 38% year-on-year. Among them, a part of new energy vehicle manufacturers “self-sold to themselves”. - This is not directly proportional to Tesla's pursuit of geometric growth in China.

Of course, the traditional Chinese auto manufacturers' "devaluation" of Tesla does not mean that they are not optimistic about the development prospects of electric vehicles in China.

Xu Heyi said at the Boao Forum that Beijing Automotive is cooperating with a team in Silicon Valley in the United States and that by the end of next year it will launch a product he claims will surpass the Tesla Model S.

Zhu Fushou’s attitude toward the future of electric vehicles is relatively conservative. He believes that 1.2 million taxis and 500,000 buses throughout the country will be the main target markets for electric vehicles at this stage.

Is there excess production capacity?

Tesla could not bring a real sense of threat to Chinese traditional car manufacturers, partly because of the technical bottlenecks faced by electric cars themselves, but also because these manufacturers still have high hopes for the traditional market - even if more and more people It is believed that the Chinese auto industry is facing serious overcapacity.

“The issue of overcapacity is overly scary.” Xu Heyi believes that there is no excess capacity in the automotive industry in China. In terms of the number of vehicles owned by thousands of people, China is far below the global average. He believes that by 2020, Chinese autos will reach 30 million to 35 million vehicles. Of course, Xu Heyi also believes that there is a certain "structural problem" in China's auto industry.

Xu Heyi said that the increase in domestic market demand brought by urbanization and the acceleration of the internationalization of Chinese car companies will effectively digest production capacity. "I expect 10% to 20% of production and sales to go to the international market before 2020, and there will be a greater proportion in the future."

Zhu Fushou’s views are relatively cautious. He admits that the overcapacity situation actually exists, but it is still reasonable.

“At present, the capacity utilization rate of the automotive industry is 84%. It should be said that 80% to 100% are acceptable ranges. If the capacity utilization rate is below 70%, it should be highly valued,” said Zhu Fushou.

Zhu Fushou stated that the cause of overcapacity on the one hand is that the high growth of car sales during these years has brought about very optimistic expectations to the management of auto companies. On the other hand, it has also caused excessive changes in the automobile industry or policies by many local governments. Entrepreneurs cannot be rational and objective in making decisions.

However, Zhu Fushou has a conflicting attitude on how to solve the problem of overcapacity in the automotive industry. On the one hand, he hoped that the government would not excessively intervene, allowing the auto industry to return to the industry itself, allowing enterprises to make decisions based on the market itself; on the other hand, he hoped that the country could introduce incentive policies to absorb excess production capacity and solve it through a third-party approach similar to manufacturing resources. Overcapacity problem.

We hope to get rid of the policy but at the same time rely on the policy, which reflects the ambivalence of Chinese traditional car manufacturers.