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This year is the first year of localization of robots. Taking the key components as an example, Suzhou Green's harmonic reducer has basically realized industrialization, and there are no obstacles to the localization of small robots under 20 kg in the future, and this small robot is more suitable for the general manufacturing industry such as the 3C industry. Nantong Zhenkang RV reducer localization progress may also exceed expectations. This over-expectation may also exist in the field of servo motors. With the promotion of localization and production and sales volume, the profitability of some robot-related companies this year has improved significantly. Eft, Dongguan Qifan and other companies have already or will achieve profitability.
The demand for general manufacturing has accelerated and there is a huge space for service robots. In recent years, domestic robotics companies have focused on the development of general robotics applications in the manufacturing industry. Machine tool loading and unloading (including press forming, etc.), grinding, polishing, painting, welding, casting, etc., have formed a more mature overall application program for robots. Outside the general manufacturing robots lay a solid foundation for large-scale application. According to calculations, the domestic industrial robot market is expected to reach a scale of 200 billion yuan in the next five years. There will be a billion-dollar industrial robot company. Compared with the existing scale, the incremental space is huge. However, future service robots will have a greater market capacity, providing a huge valuation space for robots listed companies.
Investment suggestion: Due to the large difference in demand for major products, we maintain the investment rating of “hold†in the machinery industry, and continue to drive the demand of the robot industry according to domestic manufacturing upgrades, and give the robot sub-industry a “buy†investment rating. We estimate that as the domestic robot market continues to improve and localization continues, the competitive landscape of domestic robots will become clear in the next 2-3 years. It is expected that domestic robotics companies with sales of more than 5,000 units will become real leading enterprises in the industry.
Robot industry development progress or beyond expectations
The boom in the robotics industry is good. Taking the China International Robot Exhibition as an example, the lineup of exhibiting companies has expanded significantly, and the models of domestic machines have become more abundant, and their performance and quality have improved. According to grassroots surveys, foreign robot companies such as ABB, Kuka, Yaskawa, and Fanuc, due to the strong demand from the automotive industry, achieved sales growth of more than 20% in the first half of the year, basically maintaining last year's growth rate; In the first half of the year, sales increased by more than 100% year-on-year.