Natural rubber multi-turn conversion by roller coaster

Affected by the easing of money and the multiple supply and demand factors, the natural rubber market continued to rise unilaterally in early November. In mid-November, the natural rubber market suffered a deep setback due to macro-capital tightening and micro-regulatory factors. Analysts believe that many macro and micro factors have contributed to the continuous rise of natural rubber prices.
On the one hand, the natural rubber market has been affected by a number of bullish factors. As the United States adopted a low-interest easing monetary policy, the price of commodities, including natural rubber, continues to rise sharply unilaterally, becoming the main driving force for natural rubber prices. On the domestic front, strengthening the macro-control of the real estate market will intensify the outflow of precipitated capital in the real estate market, entering the commodity market including natural rubber, and Hujiao's holding positions will continue to expand significantly, which will drive the natural rubber market price to continue rising sharply.
On the supply side, due to heavy rainfall, the increase in rubber supply in Thailand was smaller than expected. At the same time, due to the aging of age, the supply of rubber raw materials was tight, and it was difficult for exports to achieve a plan for a 10% increase. The continuous drought disaster, strong rainfall, and super typhoon in China also made Yunnan, The total output of Hainan dropped by more than 40,000 tons, a decrease of 6% year-on-year.
In terms of consumption, downstream auto sales are booming and the tire industry is booming. However, due to the high price of natural rubber, the profitability of the tire industry has been significantly reduced.
On the other hand, there are many negative factors that suppress the natural rubber market. China’s monetary policy has gradually shifted from moderately loose to moderately tight. It has suppressed the continued upward trend in commodity prices. The expectation that natural rubber reserve stocks will be sold is also gradually increasing. Several futures exchanges have strictly regulated abnormal trading behaviors and monitored excessive speculative funds. Speculative behaviors; Downstream tire companies have cut production or even stopped production to counteract the sharp increase in upstream raw material prices, and the rising costs caused by the pressure may reduce the consumption of upstream raw materials. A lot of bad news and superposition will put a heavy pressure on the natural rubber market, prompting the natural rubber market to meet resistance in the middle and long-term historical highs and return to deep decline.
In summary, depreciation of the U.S. dollar, inflation, tight supply of natural rubber, strong demand, and aggressive investment in speculative funds will enable natural rubber to interpret the bull market in the multi-year annual market. However, due to monetary policy tightening, price increases, demand restraint and other negative effects, natural rubber The gains may turn into a wide range of regional volatility and consolidation.

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