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Despite many achievements in the domestic machinery industry in 2004, Cai Weici still said that the difficulties encountered by the machinery industry in 2005 are increasing, and the difficulty of competition between domestic equipment and imported equipment is increasing.
In fact, in the context of macroeconomic regulation and control in 2004, although the growth rate of the machinery industry has slowly dropped from the supernormal state of the previous two years to less than 30%, the economic indicators are still the highest in history. More importantly, the structural adjustment of the machinery industry has made a breakthrough.
Among them, the growth rate of major technical equipment is significantly faster than the industry average. It is understood that the output of domestic power generation equipment in 2004 has reached 71.38 million kilowatts, an increase of 90.87%. Among the thermal power equipment, the 300,000 kW units increased from 34 sets to 62 sets in the previous year, and the 600,000 kW units increased from 12 sets to 28 sets. The growth of metallurgical mines and petrochemical general machinery manufacturing industry is above 30%.
On the other hand, the growth rate of CNC machine tools is much higher than the average speed of the machine tool industry. Last year, the output of domestic CNC machine tools reached 51,861 units, a year-on-year increase of 50%; much higher than the 36% growth rate of the whole machine industry in the same period; the numerical control rate of production by number of units also increased continuously, from 10.94% in 2002 and 12 in 2003. %, until 2004, the numerical control rate increased to 13.32%.
A number of representative and important technical equipments have also been applied, such as the large-scale nitrogen fertilizer localization project - the 300,000 tons of synthetic ammonia project in Texas has been successfully put into operation, the localization rate is over 90%; 40,000 cubic meters of air separation equipment Successful operation; two 600,000 kW supercritical thermal power units of Huaneng Yubei Power Plant Phase I project were fully completed in only 26 months.
Although the domestic machinery industry has achieved such results, it has to be acknowledged that in some equipment products, there is still a considerable gap between domestic technology and foreign countries. The most obvious reflection is that the trade deficit of import and export of mechanical products continues to expand. In the first half of 2004, the growth rate of imports of machinery products was 4% higher than that of export products. The accumulated trade deficit was US$27.437 billion, an increase of US$9.9 billion over the same period in 2003. Since September, the export growth rate has started to be higher than that of imports. The annual trade deficit remained at $51.206 billion.
Cai Weici also admitted that in the economic operation of the machinery industry in 2004, the momentum of foreign investment began to grow, product imports increased substantially, and the resistance to export increased. He said with no worries: "The current understanding of the autonomy of equipment manufacturing industry is still not uniform. Some local governments emphasize 'localization' and neglect 'autonomy', which increases the competition between domestic equipment and imported equipment to some extent. The difficulty."
It is worth noting that since the domestic economy began to enter the “heavy chemical industry†in the past two years, it has brought huge market opportunities to the machinery industry. Many foreign capitals have also invested more in the machinery manufacturing industry than before, except for direct investment. In addition to the way of the factory, some multinational companies have also “expanded their technological advantages and made strategic joint ventures with domestic leaders in this field. What is more important is that they require absolute control, and even incorporate the original technology centers and R&D personnel of domestic enterprises. In the system of multinational companies, the intention is to control the entire industry."
“Which industries are high-growth industries and which are considered superior enterprises, I am not convenient to say; but sometimes the technology of our domestic enterprises does have a certain gap with multinational companies, and domestic companies have to ask for people and have to accept each other. "The request for holding", Cai Weici was slightly helpless when answering the reporter's question.
When talking about the development of the machinery industry in 2005, Cai Weici believes that the constraints of some bottleneck factors have begun to increase in 2004, and the prices of raw materials such as steel, non-ferrous metals and energy required by the machinery industry are rising; After macroeconomic regulation and control, the contradictions are not alleviated. After the banks raise interest rates, the financing costs of enterprises are entering a rising period, especially for private enterprises.
Cai Weici judged that the machinery industry is expected to show a steady growth trend in 2005. The annual industrial output value is estimated to increase by 15% to 20% compared with 2004, and the profit growth will be around 10%. Due to the high growth rate in the first half of 2004 and the increase in the base, he predicted that the growth of the machinery industry will not be too fast in early 2005, but it will increase in the second half of the year. The “pre-slow and high†may be the machinery industry in 2005. The basic trend of growth.
Machinery industry: rapid development should still be alert to "clamping"
“Multinational companies are trying to transfer labor-intensive industries to me, and they are trying to control the dominant enterprises in my high-growth industry with unprecedented momentum.†On February 2, Cai Weici, vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said .