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With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, LED as a new generation of lighting technology has become the focus of attention of the whole society. Driven by the constant decline in prices, as well as the dual factors of luminous efficiency and longevity, coupled with the advantages of energy saving, energy saving and environmental protection, LED lighting ushered in the market outbreak. However, the independent research and development of technology is a long-term disadvantage of China's industry. While judging the market trend, it analyzes many technical bottlenecks of key equipment and important materials in the production of LED lighting products, and has a good reference significance for industrial development.
1. Replace the tide screen to open the authoritative data forecast. By 2020, the global lighting market will exceed 150 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.9 compared with the US$134 billion in 2010. Although the overall scale growth is not large, the lighting product structure will change significantly. Among them, the LED lighting market share will increase from about 5 billion US dollars in 2010 to 75 billion US dollars, that is, 10 times will expand 15 times. In 2014, LEDinside expects global LED lighting product shipments to grow by 68, with an output value of $17.8 billion. According to data from the Taiwan Topology Industry Research Institute, the current global LED lighting penetration rate is only 10, and by 2015 or at the latest 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50, which means that LED lighting devices will be replaced in the next few years. Traditional lighting fixtures. Figure 1 shows the penetration trend of the global LED lighting market in recent years.
Since 2014, European and American countries have begun to phase out 40-60W incandescent bulbs, which are the largest in the civilian market, providing a favorable opportunity for the popularization of LED lighting products. This will also stimulate global LED lighting manufacturers to accelerate the pace of layout of LED lighting, and further push up the global LED lighting penetration rate. The US government's support for LED lighting is gradually increasing, and the number of subsidies for energy stars and other lamps has increased rapidly, which has led to further reduction in the price of LED lamps. CREE and other manufacturers are optimistic about the development of the LED lighting market in 2014, and expect that the sales growth of replacement lamps will become the focus of the next business growth. In Europe, where the market is relatively mature, although large-scale subsidy policies have not been seen, its high electricity prices and differences in light culture have made the demand for commercial lighting and outdoor architectural situation lighting applications continue to exist. In the next few years, with the impact of the comprehensive ban policy of incandescent bulbs, it is estimated that the market will continue to show steady growth.
As an industrial power in the LED field, Japan has also played a very important role in promoting the development of the world LED industry. As early as more than a decade ago, Japan has begun to implement the 21st Century Light Plan to promote the development and industrialization of semiconductor lighting technology. It is one of the first countries in the world to start supporting the LED industry policy. In recent years, with the support of the Japanese government, the LED lighting industry has grown rapidly. At the same time, Japan's domestic awareness of energy conservation is high. Especially after the Great East Japan Earthquake, the government has proposed a low-carbon society (energy saving and carbon reduction). Among them, LED lighting products are rapidly spreading and become representatives of energy-saving products.
In addition, in emerging markets such as Brazil, India, Vietnam, Russia and other countries and regions, various plans and drafts have also been introduced to support the development of the LED lighting industry. The demand for LED lighting products in these regions is obviously rising, and the LED lighting market is growing rapidly, especially in the LED public lighting and commercial lighting markets.
A variety of data indicates that LED lighting will complete penetration from 15 to 60 in the next 1-3 years, and a large number of LED lighting market demand will be released. Strong support policies will directly drive the rapid growth of the LED lighting market.
2, the technical bottleneck needs to be broken. Although the LED luminous efficiency is continuously improved, there are still problems such as low electro-optical conversion efficiency, poor heat dissipation performance, color rendering index of warm white LED illumination and difficult color temperature control, etc., which have become the current stage. Restrict the bottleneck in the development of the LED lighting industry.
The output downstream of the LED industry chain should be based on upstream materials, but because the display of the material itself is not obvious, people's attention to materials is easily weakened, resulting in insufficient attention to basic materials research, so that although there is input but insufficient support It is difficult to attract relevant talents, resulting in materials becoming a bottleneck in development. At present, the LED industry is still based on 50mm (2å‹) or 100mm (4å‹) sapphire substrates. If large-diameter silicon substrate GaN-on-Si technology can be utilized, it is possible to fully utilize the existing GaN-on-Si technology. The complete technology and economies of scale of the silicon crystal ecosystem achieve the goal of reducing the overall LED cost. If you compare the current 150mm (6å‹) sapphire substrate with 150mm (6å‹) wafers using AZZURRO's patented GaN-on-Si technology, you can achieve cost savings of over 75 materials. Although GaN-on-Si has a significant cost advantage, it has not been widely used in the LED industry due to technical difficulties. The problem is mainly due to the difference in thermal expansion coefficient between the silicon substrate and the GaN. In the process, stress is generated due to lattice misalignment between the two materials, thereby forming a problem of unevenness of the bow and the thickness of the film. Uneven curvature and film thickness will not only cause cracking in the latter stage processing, but also cause different peak wavelengths (peakwavelength) of LEDs fabricated on the same wafer, which increases the trouble of binning in the future. . According to AZZURRO's 150mm (6å‹) GaN-on-Si wafer completed in the second quarter of 2011, it has reached an average thickness of 6.1m, a standard deviation of 0.062m, and an average peak wavelength of 451.9nm and a standard deviation of 2.1nm. Level. The development of equipment is another fundamental guarantee for the development of LED lighting devices. The MOCVD system is an essential equipment for the production of heterogeneous structural materials for LED epitaxial wafers and microwave power. With the continuous expansion of the compound semiconductor device market, the demand for MOCVD systems continues to increase, and almost all of China relies on imports. The major suppliers of MOCVD equipment in the world include AIXTRON in Germany and VEECO in the United States. The two companies offer up to 20 million yuan for a single MOCVD equipment. Even so, key equipment such as MOCVD systems, if it involves defense technology, even It is also difficult to obtain optimal performance by relying on imports.
The development of LED packaging technology has always focused on the theme of improving heat dissipation efficiency and reducing the cost of terminal use. The use of new packaging materials, the formation of new packaging specifications, and the emergence of new packaging processes are all designed to reduce unit lumen costs while maintaining quality levels. From the perspective of the global market, the main challenge facing the increase in the share of China's LED packaging manufacturers is still technology. In 2013, the industry saw emerging technologies such as EMC stent packaging, FlipChip, and wafer level packaging (CSP).
Today, intellectual property has become a strategic weapon for LED companies to compete. The LED companies that entered the market firstly actively laid out the patent network to ensure the first-mover advantage, and used intellectual property as a strategic weapon to maintain the leading edge and hinder the late-entering enterprises to enter the LED market. Therefore, the development of the LED lighting market is also facing an intellectual property crisis. In the past 10 years, the semiconductor lighting market has grown rapidly, and LED intellectual property has become the focus of competition in the international semiconductor lighting industry. Throughout the global LED intellectual property landscape, the core patents of the industry are still dominated by five major manufacturers including Japan's Nichia Corporation, Toyota Synthetic Company, American Cree, Philips Lumen, and Osram of Germany. Although the number of LED patent applications in China's mainland has increased significantly in recent years, China's position in the global LED intellectual property landscape has not been fundamentally improved. China's LED patents are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, and the patents in the midstream packaging and downstream applications account for 64% of the total applications. In the key technical links related to the long-term development of the industry, there is still a lack of core patents. From the perspective of patent types, China's LED patents are mainly based on utility models and design patents, and invention patents account for a relatively low proportion. Among them, domestic LED practical patents account for 59%, design patents account for 15%, and LED invention patents account for 15. The ratio is only 26.
3. Conclusion LED lighting is a fast-growing market. The market scale is rising rapidly, but it still faces many technical problems waiting for breakthrough. For example, researchers and LED manufacturers have been working to reduce the loss caused by the decline of LED light efficiency, but they have not Solve the real cause behind this phenomenon.
According to research firm ledinside, China's LED lighting products shipments will reach 1.32 billion in 2014, an increase of 68 compared with 2013. Despite the continuous growth of lighting demand, China's LEDs have a lack of core technologies and overall overcapacity. . Most of the major equipment and instruments in China's LED industry chain are currently imported. Key raw materials and supporting components, such as phosphors, sapphire, organic sources, arsine, phosphine, etc., rely on imports. MOCVD epitaxial equipment and some fully automated chips and packaging equipment are also imported, and the price is high. High-performance silica gel and epoxy materials for packaging are also imported. In the long run, the product cost is too high and not competitive, which will restrict the whole process of LED industry development. Therefore, realizing the self-sufficiency of key raw materials and equipment as soon as possible is the core of future development.