Jia Xinguang: The end of high-growth limit will be normalized

On July 10, 2012, the Conference on Innovation and Development of China's Tangible Automobile Market and the Annual Meeting of the 2012 Branch of the China Automobile Circulation Association's Tangible Automobile Market held in Beijing. The following are the executive directors of the China Automobile Dealers Association, and Jia Xinguang, an automotive industry analyst, presented a report at the conference on the “Characteristics and Changing Characteristics of the Automotive Industry”.

According to the data from the Automobile Association, passenger cars in the first half of the year increased by 5.6%, sales increased by 6.5% year-on-year, and micro-passenger data increased by 7.1%. Therefore, in the current macroeconomic situation, this market is still quite good. Commercial vehicles were affected by the macro economy, which fell by 10%, but the passenger car market was still relatively active. It seems that in the second half of the year, there should not be a policy of stimulating the market. In particular, there will not be a vigorous policy.

Guangzhou Limit Card is not the same as Beijing. It is not only a problem of traffic jams, but Guangzhou has already tried several times. For example, ten years ago it was restricting the purchase of vehicles under 1.2L, but was later cancelled by the NDRC. Later, it discussed congestion fees. It was the first to discuss congestion fees, but at that time a British transportation expert who participated in the planning for the development of transportation in Guangzhou said that Guangzhou was not qualified to accept blocking fees. Because the world's congestion is blocked after all the measures have been taken and have not been effective. No measures have been taken in Guangzhou. As soon as they are charged, they are not reasonable. Now that its limit is due to environmental protection, it is not because the mayor of Guangzhou City is particularly concerned about the blue sky, but now it is necessary to assess the city's environmental protection indicators. This is the relatively hot PM2.5 this year, in fact it is a suspended particle. One. There is also a nitrogen oxide, these two are related to the car. Therefore, the media is more concerned about whether other provinces and cities will follow up. Some said that originally Shenzhen would have to go ahead in Guangzhou, but because Guangzhou is the provincial capital, it changed. Some also said that after the subway repaired in Shenzhen, the traffic was very good and the taxis could not take care of it. Guangzhou should be the starter, because Beijing has granted it a limited license. Guangzhou should not be within the scope of the central government, and then it will be the first to impose a limit. So it will encounter rotten eggs, bricks or something. But you can rest assured that the second encounter is very rare. By the tenth limit, you may have a small one-hundred-word article in the newspaper. It was normal, and it was not taken for granted. In the future, more than 200 prefecture-level and above cities are likely to limit purchases.

Internationally, PMI is more concerned with the purchasing managers' index. Purchasing is an early indicator. The index will enter a contraction state below 50%, and the domestic situation is now approaching 50. Whether the next step is going up or down is a problem. At the same time, Premier Wen also felt that the economic downturn has not stopped.

The decline in inventory is only a drop in the number of manufacturers, while the inventory in dealers has increased, which means that inventory is being transferred. Looking at the current situation, the number of passenger cars now is 290,000 in 2011 and 410,000 this year. This increase is very strong. Passenger cars are now slightly down, micro-vehicles are also slightly down, and passenger cars are now the most powerful cars are rising, SUV and some are unsustainable. Therefore, such inventory status should not be a good sign.

Another situation is that now it is said that the situation of independent brands is not good. In terms of sales, the number of joint-venture manufacturers and state-owned enterprises has fallen by a large margin, and private enterprises have decreased by a small margin. This year, statistics on the joint venture autonomy began. The autonomy of joint ventures rose rapidly, and the current volume was not great. That is to say, it is really a wolf, that is, the joint venture has a very great threat to autonomy.

In terms of macroeconomics, people in foreign economies are very concerned about an indicator, and the growth in China's electricity demand is now lower than GDP. According to the general rule, the demand for electricity is higher than GDP. For example, when GDP growth is 8%, power growth should be above 10%. But at this year's GDP of 8%, electricity growth is 4%. Now that coal prices have fallen for the first time in years, the decline in coal prices means that energy demand is decreasing. Now a special coal terminal in Qinhuangdao, its inventory of energy is more than 8 million tons a month, and now it is 9 million tons, so it began to refuse the coal-laden train.

Secondly, we cannot complain about urban restrictions. We can't say that there is no way to limit congestion in Beijing, but because of environmental restrictions, we need to provide environmentally friendly automotive products. For example, the limited-licensed city: Beijing and Guangzhou new energy vehicles do not participate in the Yaohao, so can they provide new energy vehicles. Another is to speed up industrial restructuring. It is impossible for us to have more than 100 automobile factories. But now that the self-owned brand is sometimes sophisticated, it is quite complicated, saying that it does not live well, but no one can die. One more thing is that the development of the automobile industry has entered a new history. In the past, talking about cars was a machine that changed the world; now cars are machines that are changed by the world. I recently formed the idea that the ten-year growth of the car is over. In the 1980s we were a volatility every three years.

The third change is price. 1993 was the highest year for Chinese car prices. At that time, Santana had to be more than 200,000. Now Poussin is about 70,000. The highest is Cherokee’s original highest price of 260,000 yuan. The actual ex-factory price is 90,000. Falling. The second is 2002 when it was the so-called blowout year. Why this happens is because GDP per capita reached 1,000 US dollars in 2002. This international thinks that there will be a change in consumption structure when this stage of income is reached, and private car purchases will accelerate.

The transformation of the automobile industry is now constrained by transportation, environmental protection, and energy. For example, traffic jams, and now more than two-thirds of the cities in more than two cities have traffic jams. If this is done, there will be traffic jams at all prefecture-level cities. Actually like Lanzhou has implemented tail number restrictions. Congestion is due to poor urban planning. Wang Qishan, mayor of Beijing at the time, visited Hong Kong to inspect it again. When he said this sentence, it seems that the traffic problem is still not well planned. But later the mayor did not go to study, so he did not say this problem, he instead put forward a limit. The second, now generally acknowledged that we have not prepared for the automobile society and are not prepared in all aspects. Third, the problem of oil will become more serious in the future. For example, a car will have 400 million cars, which will consume 1 billion tons annually. Now we use 400 million tons of oil throughout the country, of which 200 million tons are domestic supplies and 200 million tons are international imports. However, the domestic future can only guarantee 200 million tons, so this gap is large. The tense international environment in the Middle East and the United States has also made the problem of gasoline in China even worse.

The other is pollution. As the State Council requested in November last year that the evaluation of ecological civilization construction goals be taken as the content of the comprehensive evaluation of the leading cadres, one vote was rejected and the area for which the target assessment task was not completed was restricted by the region. The requirements of the Ministry of Environmental Protection are that starting in 2013, 113 PM2.5 assessments will be implemented in key cities for environmental protection, and in 2015, assessments will be conducted in all 200 or more prefecture-level cities. Therefore, from the policy point of view, restrictions on licensing are more and more urgent.