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The US crude oil futures prices for February delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange topped US$100/bbl for the first time at US$99.62, influenced by factors such as the US oil reserve’s average of less than five years, investors’ concerns about tight crude oil supply, and the depreciation of the US dollar. The closing price also hit a record high. Regardless of whether the price of oil stands at a steady high of 100 US dollars, or whether it has been adjusted by shocks and broke through the psychological price threshold of 100 US dollars, the arrival of the era of high oil prices has become an indisputable fact. Can the petrochemical industry, which is most closely related to crude oil, bear the weight of one hundred US dollars of oil prices? Become the focus of attention in the industry.
The high international oil price will undoubtedly bring serious negative impact on the petrochemical industry.
First of all, the international oil price will break 100, which will cause the deficit in the petrochemical industry to further expand. Despite China's huge trade surplus, the petrochemical industry has always had a trade deficit. The main reason is that oil is the largest deficit item for single commodities in China. At present, China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 47%. In the first 11 months of 2007, the deficit reached 70.12 billion US dollars.
Secondly, the international oil price has broken 100, the pressure on crude oil processing costs has been greater, and the losses in the refining industry have continued to increase. Due to the current domestic pricing mechanism of refined oil products, to a certain extent, the impact of international oil prices on domestic prices has been suppressed, but the increase in price upside-down has put increasing pressure on the price of domestic refined oil products. Although domestic oil prices have not been adjusted immediately, the National Development and Reform Commission may also adjust the refined oil prices if necessary.
Third, the international oil price will break 100, which will drive the cost of the downstream chemical industry with petroleum as raw materials. Fertilizers, basic organic raw materials such as "triphenyl" and "triene", ethylene glycol, terephthalic acid and other chemical fiber raw materials will all increase the cost pressure due to the rising crude oil, and will drive plastics, chemical fiber, synthetic rubber and other The overall increase in the cost of chemical products.
In addition, the rise in oil prices will also lead to a substantial increase in transportation costs, adding to the burden on chemical companies, which are mainly bulk raw materials. Although cost support can maintain the prices of chemical products, the bearing capacity of chemical downstream industries has been continuously eroded in recent years, and it has become increasingly weakened. It is increasingly difficult for the chemical industry to pass on upstream costs through the price chain.
Of course, the petrochemical industry is not without income in the face of 100 US dollars in oil prices. The international oil price has risen, and the domestic oil and gas exploration industry has been synchronizing with the oil price, benefiting directly from the rise in oil prices. With the rise in oil prices, new energy and alternative energy sources will usher in new opportunities for development. High oil prices will gradually make alternative energy sources economically exploitable. This will encourage more R&D investments in new energy technologies. Coal chemical and bio-chemical industries will receive more attention. The development of alcohol ether fuels and biomass energy will be greatly accelerated, and coal will also be promoted. The pace of oil, coal to olefins demonstration.
The petrochemical industry should also be able to do something in the face of the US$100 oil price, relying on active energy management, striving to promote the development of chemical energy-saving technologies, and diligently digesting high-cost factors. This is the only way for the development of chemical companies.
Can the petrochemical industry bear the weight of high oil prices?
On January 2, 2008, international crude oil prices ushered in record highs on the first trading day of the new year. The wolf came and the hundred-dollar, high-oil wolf came at the beginning of the new year.