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According to customs data, in 2009, China’s net coal imports exceeded 100 million tons, crude oil imports reached 204 million tons, and foreign dependence on oil reached 51.2%. Some analysts believe that by 2020, it is expected to reach 65%; LNG imports will be about 7.5 billion cubic meters. , equivalent to about 8% of the country's total natural gas consumption that year. Just five years ago, China’s coal had a net export of 80 million tons. The foreign dependence on oil was only 40%, and natural gas was zero imports.
The continuous increase in the degree of foreign energy dependence in China is in line with the rapid economic development in the past three decades. From the historical experience of Western developed countries, as long as the economy continues to maintain steady and rapid development, the situation of increasing dependence on energy resources will not change.
Faced with this reality, what we need to calmly think about is how to make more scientific adjustments to the energy consumption structure, how to rationalize the energy circulation mechanism, and how to more effectively manage the global allocation of energy.
Scientific adjustment of energy consumption structure is not only an important part of accelerating the adjustment of economic structure and transforming the mode of economic development, but also an urgent requirement for ensuring national energy security. To scientifically adjust the energy consumption structure, we must first accelerate the development of diversified energy sources. As of the end of 2009, the proportion of non-fossil energy in China's energy consumption was only 8.3%, compared with 16% in the United States. In order to achieve the goal of 15% non-fossil energy in 2020, we must increase the proportion of nuclear power and hydropower in China’s power supply as soon as possible, actively and steadily develop solar energy and wind energy, and gradually reduce the proportion of traditional fossil energy in primary energy. At the same time, we must vigorously encourage technological innovation, carry out in-depth energy conservation and consumption reduction in various industries, and increase the efficiency of comprehensive energy utilization.
The high dependence of energy on foreign countries makes it even more urgent for China to accelerate the reform of the energy price system and improve the energy market mechanism. The higher the degree of foreign dependence, the closer the connection with global prices, and the harder it is to continue to maintain non-market energy prices. The international crude oil prices fluctuate in real time, domestic refined oil pricing is not completely market-oriented, and the current refined oil pricing mechanism needs to be improved. With the implementation of a number of imported gas sources, China’s natural gas import volume and foreign dependence will rapidly increase. How to price the imported gas and domestic gas with a large price gap has become the biggest impetus for the reform of natural gas prices, and even an objective change in price. The launch delineated the "final deadline."
Effectively managing the global energy allocation is an inevitable requirement to continuously improve the quality and efficiency of China's economic development and continuously improve China's economic international competitiveness and ability to resist risks. In the global economic integration today, the global allocation of global resources is a consensus. At the current stage, China should adopt strategies such as a decentralized distribution of energy import sources, increase the proportion of overseas equity investment, and steadily increase the strategic oil reserve, so as to resolve the risks involved in high energy dependence on foreign countries.
Calmly responding to increasing external dependence on energy
For some time now, "China's oil dependence on foreign countries has exceeded 50%" has become a hot topic of discussion, and has even become the focus of some experts' concerns. In fact, the degree of dependence on foreign energy reflects, to a certain extent, the degree of openness and development of a country’s economy. We should accept this reality calmly, and calmly respond to the increasing dependence on energy.