Will the "visible hand" and "invisible hand" contend for the need for a timetable for car electrification?

Automobile electrification is an important trend in the development of the automotive industry and will bring many benefits to society. At the same time, however, it should be realized that under the tide of motorized vehicles, the good and the bad, mixed forces, repeated investment, and low-end waste may again appear in the development of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles should embark on a new path for high-quality development, rather than re-tracing the old road of traditional energy vehicles. Based on this view, the magazine plans a series of reports on "three-question electrification" to provide advice and suggestions for the development of the industry.

“Now the industry is unanimously convinced that electric power is the direction of future power transformation. This is unwavering. However, the timetable for the realization of electric power is uncertain. It cannot be completed overnight. New energy vehicles cannot completely replace fuel vehicles in the short term. In an interview with a reporter from "China Automotive News," Fu Yuwu, chairman of the China Automobile Engineering Society, said the above remarks. In recent years, with the acceleration of the promotion of new energy vehicles, there has been an increase in remarks regarding the prohibition on sales of traditional fuel vehicles. In September this year, Xin Guobin of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology had stated that it would start researching and formulating a timetable for prohibiting production and prohibiting the sale of traditional fuel vehicles, pushing rumors of the impending “extinction” of traditional fuel vehicles to the forefront. When will the automobile age come? This may not be solved by a person or a company's strategy or actions.

â– The general trend of motorization is irreversible

“More than a decade ago we began to propose that the automobile should be transformed into electrification, and promote this transition in the four consecutive five-year plans of '10th Five-Year', 'Eleventh Five-Year', 'Twelfth Five-Year' and 'Thirteen-Five'. Fu Yu said. In the past, the industry did have different voices for the development of electric vehicles, but in recent years it has been basically unified, and the trend of transition to electrification has become increasingly clear.

Before the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicated that it would study the timetable for the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, some countries have proposed timetables for banned fuel vehicles. As of April 2016, the Dutch Labor Party proposed to ban the sale of traditional gasoline and diesel vehicles from 2025; 2016 In October of this year, the German Federal Senate passed a proposal to ban the sale of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles after 2030. In June 2017, the Indian Energy Agency proposed a plan to ban fuel vehicles in 2030...

Yin Chengliang, deputy dean of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that under the huge pressure of environmental protection, fuel vehicles that generate huge carbon emission pressures give way to new energy vehicles, which is undoubtedly the future development trend. “Electric vehicles can well solve some of the pain points in our current economic and social development, such as energy structure and environmental pollution. This is exactly what the people expect and the government is trying hard to solve.” Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Centenary Association He said that China’s economy, technology, and industrial structure have already had a fairly good foundation. If it is properly grasped, China will probably win certain advantages in the automotive industry through electric vehicles.

In addition to environmental, energy, and transportation issues, the future trend of automotive electric vehicles is also reflected in the support of future travel scenarios. Chen Qingtai pointed out that the basic unit of future intelligent traffic scenarios is electric vehicles, and electric vehicles can seamlessly communicate with intelligent transportation. . Fu Yuwu agreed with Chen Qingtai's point of view. He added that electric vehicles are also the best carrier for vehicle weight reduction and are the development focus of automotive chassis technology.

â–  Dispute between "visible hands" and "invisible hands"

Although the industry has reached a consensus on the trend of motorized vehicles, there is still disagreement as to what role the government should play in boosting the development of electrification.

Fu Yuwu stated that both the government and the industry must be responsible for history. The Chinese government must be cautious in discontinuing production and prohibiting the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. It must respect scientific laws and market laws, and should not blindly follow up. Fu Yuwu believes that the role of the government should be to create a collaborative and innovative environment, to better guide the healthy development of industries and enterprises, but also to promote the formulation of relevant standards. “Now some local governments have become increasingly indifferent to blindness.” Fu Yuwu said that based on the need for breakthroughs in battery technology and supporting facilities to be improved, the development of electric vehicles has certain uncertainties. These aspects require moderate government intervention, but it should not be Sports-style thinking leads to a waste of social resources.

Wei Anli, deputy secretary-general of the China Internal Combustion Engine Industry Association, said that to achieve marketization of electric vehicles, electric vehicles must go beyond three thresholds: First, the nature of the battery material changes; Second, the realization of energy storage, energy storage methods and convenient; Third, recycling of used batteries And pollution-free treatment. Before crossing these three thresholds, electric vehicles need to be coordinated with the energy industry chain and the social security system. With the help of the government's "visible hand," we must also consider the "invisible hand" of the market. Some people think that the automotive industry is one of the most market-oriented industries and a part of economies of scale. Whether consumers buy money or not is the basis for determining the development of the industry.

â–  Diversity is more worth looking forward to than electric

Statistics show that from 2015 to the first half of 2017, China has a total of more than 200 new energy vehicle vehicle production projects planned or landed, with an accumulated investment of more than 1 trillion yuan and a production capacity of more than 20 million vehicles. In this growth process, local government is the biggest promoter. However, behind the rapid growth, huge problems are hidden: repeated construction, waste of resources, and no competitive products or companies have emerged so far.

“The government’s strong support for pure electric vehicles has contributed to the speculative mentality of certain car enterprises to a certain extent.” An engineer of a new energy car company, who declined to be named, told the reporter that the new energy car companies are pursuing the pure electrification of new energy vehicles. The pursuit of long-running mileage is all a response to the speculative psychology of the policy, and in fact it has no positive effect on energy conservation and environmental protection. At the same time, the engineer told reporters that in the short term he is more optimistic about the hybrid technology, especially the weak mixing technology in the positive role of energy conservation and environmental protection, but from the perspective of industry development, the government needs to vigorously promote.

A few days ago, Changan Automobile announced that it would completely stop selling traditional fuel vehicles by 2025. Zhu Huarong, president of Changan Automobile, explained that Changan Automobile stopped selling traditional fuel vehicles instead of "fully giving up internal combustion engines." In the future, Changan Automobile will vigorously promote energy-saving and new energy technologies. Apply proportions and accelerate the development and application of higher combustion efficiency internal combustion engines. Fu Yuwu said that Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle technology line includes three hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cells. From this perspective, the timetable for Changan Automobile's release is no problem. At the same time, Fu Yuwu stressed that the application of weak mixing technology is of great significance in the development of China's automobile electrification.

Not only Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile and other independent brands have adopted diversified new energy vehicle strategies in the electrification tide. Wei Anli pointed out that energy efficient vehicles and electric vehicles powered by high-efficiency internal combustion engines are one of the “two wheels” that reduce China’s oil consumption and reduce foreign dependence on foreign oil and environmental pollution. While developing new energy vehicle technologies, they also have to Pay attention to the tapping potential of the internal combustion engine power, only the "two wheels" can run more steadily.