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During the 2014 APEC Leaders' Meeting Week, both China and the United States reached a consensus that about 200 technology products could be exempted from tariffs. However, Sino-US trade frictions have not weakened.
On November 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce concluded that the existence of subsidy from passenger vehicles and light truck tires imported from China has been subject to excessive subsidy from the government. The United States intends to impose a "countervailing duty" on such products, involving a total amount of more than 3 billion yuan. Dollars. According to the preliminary results announced by the US Department of Commerce, Chinese tire companies will be subject to punitive tariffs ranging from 17.7% to 81.3%.
As the world's largest car ownership country, 50% of tires in the United States originate from imports, and it is also the most important overseas market for Chinese tires. Its imported tires account for about one-third of the total tires exported by China.
A Qingdao tire trader once told reporters: “Once the 'double reverse' (anti-dumping and countervailing) final ruling is released, it is 'requiring money' for US dealers, but for most tire companies in China, It is 'killing'."
A Chinese rubber industry official said that domestic tire production capacity is already in surplus. In the context of weak domestic sales, the US “double reverse†advance will inevitably accelerate the industry reshuffle.
In order to circumvent the impact of the “double reverse†in the United States, in the tire province of Shandong, the pace of shifting production capacity to enterprises abroad is accelerating. According to an industry insider, “going global†can circumvent the US trade barriers to China, but large-scale enterprises will be the main force for overseas investment because of the large amount of funds required for the transfer of production capacity.
Countervailing duty up to or exceeding 80%
For Chinese tire companies, the haze of the "China-US Tire Special Security Case" in 2009 has not yet gone and the "double reverse" investigation has struck.
On November 24, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced preliminary findings that there are subsidies for passenger cars and light truck tires imported from China. The United States intends to impose countervailing duties on such products. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated in its statement that the U.S. side has determined that China’s sales of passenger car and light truck tires to the United States have received improper government subsidies, ranging from 12.5% ​​to 81.29%.
According to the U.S. trade remedy procedure, based on the preliminary findings, the Ministry of Commerce will instruct U.S. Customs to collect countervailing duty cash deposits from related companies. The reported tax rate is 17.7% to 81.3%.
The incident originated on June 3 this year. Under the US Steel Workers Union (USW) application, the United States launched an "anti-dumping" and "anti-subsidy" investigation on passenger car and light truck tires in China, involving more than US$ 3 billion. Since the USW submitted its application in June, the “double reverse†incident has continued to heat up. There are even pessimistic views in the industry: After two months, Chinese tires will basically exit from the US market.
A person from a company in Shandong Tire said to reporters that in the trade disputes that China's tire industry has suffered, this “double reverse†will be the largest amount.
In the tyre protection case that began in 2009, the United States imposed a punitive tariff of 35%, 30% and 25% on the Chinese passenger car and light truck tires in the three years since 2009.
According to public information, during the US special safeguard case, Chinese tires' exports to the United States once fell by more than 60%, and Chinese tire companies that mainly export to the US market continued to lose money. A foreign trade credit guarantee person expects that the duration of the “double reverse†case will be longer than that of the special security case of that year and it is expected that the final tariff will reach 60%.
According to industry insiders, the results announced by the United States are only preliminary rulings on "anti-subsidy", and the investigation results on "anti-dumping" will be announced in January next year.
According to sources, the U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to make a final ruling on anti-subsidy investigations in April next year, and the US International Trade Commission is expected to make a ruling in May next year. If both parties make a positive final ruling, U.S. Customs will formally introduce a countervailing duty.
The report said that if the above-mentioned preliminary sanctions of the US Department of Commerce were confirmed next year, the U.S. branch of Chinese company Cooper (Kunshan) Tire Co., Ltd. would also be subject to a 12.5% ​​tariff if it were to import parent company products.
A tire trade company in Qingdao bluntly said: "Once the 'double reverse' ruling is issued, it is 'for money' for US dealers. For most tire companies in China, it is simply 'worry'."
Industry shuffling will accelerate
U.S. Customs statistics show that China’s tire industry last year exported US$2.078 billion to the United States, and exported US$510 million in the first quarter of this year. Due to different tariffs between China and the United States, China Customs statistics show that last year, the amount of Chinese tires exported to the United States was US$3.34 billion.
A business person from the Qingdao International Rubber Exchange Market told reporters that if the maximum 35% tariff imposed on the “Special Protection Case†a few years ago could be digested, then this time, 60% of the tariff will be on Chinese tire companies. The fatal blow.
A Qingdao foreign trade company official said that due to the high added value of China's tire industry, the tax rate raised during the special insurance period has been digested by the international market. “The current concern is that the tax rate is too high, higher than that of domestic and foreign customers. Digestive power will lead the US market to close its doors to Chinese companies."
In the view of a sales manager of Tire Enterprise Race Wheel International Tire Co., Ltd., after the “special protection case†was completed from 2009 to 2011, China’s tire products’ export tariffs on the United States in 2012 and 2013 were only about 5%. The business has thus passed good days for almost two years.
However, a person from the Qingdao Rubber Valley Group told reporters that in the past two years, Chinese tire companies’ exports to the United States have increased sharply. This is one of the reasons why the United States launched a “double counter†investigation.
According to the forecast of China's tire industry, in 2015, there were only 120 million new production capacity in the industry, and the overcapacity rate was 10% to 15%. The homogeneity of products was serious, and there was a certain degree of uneven quality.
Take Shandong Province, a major province of tire production, as an example. As of the end of 2013, there were 287 tire manufacturers in Shandong Province, but most of them were small enterprises, which were small in size, low in profitability, and weak in market risk resistance. In this situation, new production capacity continues to be launched. According to a senior industry insider, this part of the new production capacity will be the most affected by the United States' "double reverse".
A person from a Qingdao-based trading company analyzed that many small and medium-sized tire companies make a living out of exports, and the United States is also China's largest exporter of tires. This “double reverse†will result in the elimination of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises.
Overcapacity "going out"
From the perspective of the above-mentioned tire companies, what China’s tire industry is currently most worried about is that with the advancement of the “double counter†investigation by US tires against China, other countries may follow the example of the United States and initiate similar investigations on Chinese tire products.
China is known as the “World Tire Factory†and 26 of the world’s 75 largest tire manufacturers have made it to China, among which 12 are located in Shandong.
On September 10, the Russian-White-Kazakh customs union followed suit in the United States and conducted anti-dumping investigations on imported trucks, buses, trolleybuses, and trailer tires. The amount involved reached 400 million U.S. dollars.
In this regard, a tire company in Shandong told reporters, "This is not a good sign, continuous 'double reverse', is a very big blow to China's tires." The above-mentioned foreign trade credit guarantees also said that the United States' "double anti" investigation It is conductive, and the EU, Japan, India, and Australia will follow suit and form a chain reaction.
In this regard, industry sources said that due to domestic overcapacity and foreign relief investigations, since the “China-US Tire Special Protection Case†in 2009, many Chinese-owned tire companies, including Double Star, Race Wheel, and so on, have started to shift production capacity to Southeast Asia. And other regional transfers.
Double Star Group's contract for the establishment of a factory in Southeast Asia was signed in August and its Southeast Asia factory will be partially completed next year. A person from Saihong International Tire Co., Ltd. said that the company had built a factory in Vietnam in 2012 in order to guard against more severe sanctions against tire export companies in Europe, America and other countries.
It is worth noting that, at the just-concluded APEC meeting, the current Thai Prime Minister Paoyu went to Beijing and talked with China's tire companies on the topic of industrial chain transfer. It clearly stated that it would increase preferential policies for Chinese-funded tire companies to invest in Thailand on the basis of the preferential policies for attracting foreign companies to invest in Thailand.
To build a factory in Thailand will not only improve Thai rubber's difficulty in selling, but also urge Chinese tire companies to “go out†their excess production capacity, and evade the adverse impact of the U.S. tire anti-China case against China. However, it takes a lot of money to invest in factories overseas. What really can afford this part of the funds is also the large tire companies in China.