Summary of the economic situation at the first anniversary of the crisis


Business Club September 27th In front of such a big shock, all export-oriented companies will be affected, only the degree of difference. In the same industry, companies that are in the upper reaches of the industrial chain have a slightly looser life cycle, and more low-end competitive routes, unbranded and unskilled processing companies are hard to survive the crisis, which is a natural elimination process, the financial crisis It only speeds up this process.
From south to north, the shock wave diminishes this financial crisis. The domestic industries engaged in processing and import and export trade have been severely hit. However, the crisis has forced regional economic restructuring. This is not necessarily a good thing.
The Pearl River Delta, as the country's first economic zone to open to the outside world, has been struggling to promote the upgrading of its industrial structure after the challenges of the rise of the Yangtze River Delta in the 1990s. However, more than a decade has passed. Apart from a few leading cities, the low-end traditional industries such as clothing, shoes, hats, bags, toys, plastics and rubber products, low-value-added electromechanical products and furniture are still enterprises in the Pearl River Delta Region. The main body, the ability to resist risks is limited. Especially in Dongguan, thousands of companies have closed down or have stopped production.
Some Taiwanese-funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta have started to divert several years ago, moved to Jiangsu and some inland cities, and some moved to Southeast Asia. Hong Kong-funded enterprises are mostly operated by the first generation, small-scale, business and technology. Simple, hopelessness in transition, and faltering situation. The simple outward-oriented processing economy in the Pearl River Delta is no longer a transition but a phase-out.
However, due to the early industrial restructuring, Shenzhen has become the most affected Pearl River Delta economy in this crisis.
There are more than 300,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou. China's 10% of clothing, 20% of shoes, 90% of metal shell lighters and 80% of glasses are produced here. 75% of Wenzhou enterprises have export products. Wenzhou is east One of the cities that suffered the most from the financial crisis on the coast, many companies stopped work and stopped working, and corporate profits plummeted.
The response of Wenzhou enterprises, on the one hand, is to expand the high-end links such as R&D and branding of the industrial chain. On the one hand, they use the power of guilds and the government to “surround” the mainland market, and establish “Wenzhou famous shopping malls” in major shopping malls in important cities in the Mainland. "Wenzhou's well-known brands will be pushed into the domestic market in the form of "clusters." Kunshan is close to Shanghai and is similar in structure to Dongguan in Guangdong. Due to its export-oriented economy, Kunshan is generally considered to be a high-risk area affected by the financial crisis. The enterprises in Kunshan first used “doing four rests and three rests” to maintain, and this year, the IT industry in the city's pillar industries picked up orders and took the lead in Jiangsu to achieve positive growth year-on-year. In addition to the “Home Appliances to the Countryside” policy that has driven the domestic sales of Kunshan’s two pillar industries of electronic information and equipment manufacturing, another major reason is that the industry has turned its products to “small notebook computers” with low prices and complete core functions. Said the Internet), to achieve "small profits but quick turnover." According to estimates by industry insiders, the growth momentum of orders represented by netbooks will generally continue at least until the first half of next year.
Although the Pan-Bohai Bay Economic Circle is also a coastal economy, it has suffered little impact. In the first half of this year, the GDP of the 9 cities of the PRD increased by 7%, the growth rate of the 16 cities of the Yangtze River Delta increased by 9.2%, and the five provinces and cities around the Bohai Rim increased by 10.8%. The most important reason why the shock wave gradually weakens from south to north is the degree of economic extroversion. The development of the Bohai Rim area was relatively late. At present, it has not yet formed an export-oriented industrial structure similar to the Pearl River Delta or the Yangtze River Delta. It relies more on the domestic market than on the overseas market.
Looking at the regions and industries in the crisis, it should be said that the export-oriented industrial structure itself creates many difficulties. In the face of such a large-scale impact, all export-oriented industries will be affected, only degree differences. In the same industry, companies that are in the upper reaches of the industrial chain have a slightly looser life cycle, and more low-end competitive routes, unbranded and unskilled processing companies are hard to survive the crisis, which is a natural elimination process, the financial crisis It only speeds up this process.
Baotuan, Steering, and Transfer: In the view of business wintering scans, enterprises respond to the crisis by nothing more than changing jobs, transforming, and shifting. However, it is easier said than done. As a clothing company owner lamented, “I also know that sales will not go up in the short term. However, if I want to switch to domestic sales, where is it too late. More than 90% of my clients are European and American customers, and there are few domestic sales partners, no channels, no information. How can I switch to domestic sales? However, the machine has to be changed and workers' wages must be sent. What should I do?” This is the dilemma of all export-oriented SMEs.
The culmination of disasters is the only goal for many companies today. In fact, the methods for enterprises to cope with the crisis are very limited. Small and medium-sized enterprises are weak, and if they do not regroup, they will face enormous pressure to survive.
Peng Xing, a businessman in Wenzhou, started from selling clothes and later set up a factory. In 12 years, he developed a small-scale garment factory with dozens of people and sold 2.5 billion yuan annually to become the leading clothing company in the region. Peng Xing and some of his peers recognized that they must have the brand and R&D capabilities. To this end, eight companies from Wenzhou jointly invested in the formation of a new apparel company and seized on the two high-end links of design, research, development and marketing in the industry chain to create “Uniq Sends "brands" and outsources production to processing companies. At present, this new brand has absorbed more than one hundred of local excellent manufacturing companies in Wenzhou as a product alliance and collaboration enterprise. Through a group approach, it collectively impacts the high-end of the industrial chain and fundamentally changes the situation in the low-end manufacturing process. . Since the second half of last year, several hundred small businesses involving industries such as machinery, clothing, molds, shoes and leather have reorganized and established 39 new enterprise groups. The financial crisis has also strengthened the determination of some powerful private enterprises to take the initiative and speed up the transition. They have turned their sights to emerging industries such as wind power equipment, LED high-tech products, and bio-pharmaceuticals with even greater development prospects. For example, Chint Group, which has developed by relying on low-voltage electrical appliances, has been devoted to the development of solar thin-film batteries in recent years. In July of this year, the second-generation thin-film batteries that fill the gap in the domestic solar energy industry were officially mass-produced, and Chint's thin-film battery production capacity will reach 300 trillion next year. Above Wa, ranked first in the country.
Not all growth points that are not easily affected by the external crisis have such a high threshold. For example, baby products industry. In Guangdong alone, the number of newborns last year and this year will exceed 2.5 million, and the annual consumption of baby products will reach more than 860 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2015, a market of 1 trillion yuan will be formed in the country. It is a great opportunity for enterprises engaged in clothing, shoes, hats, bags, toys and plastics.
There are also companies that have adopted cost-shifting methods to cope with the crisis. For example, the Hangzhou Meitong Group, which produces candle products, has its headquarters and R&D center in China, but its production base has been moved to Vietnam. 95% of Meitu's products are exported to foreign countries. Meituan transferred the candle products to Vietnam for production, avoiding the high anti-dumping duties levied by the European Union. On the other hand, the drop in international oil prices has resulted in a saving of about 30% in production costs. This year, the sales of candlesticks in the United States are even with a slight increase compared to last year, and profits will be higher than last year.
Before the outbreak of the financial crisis, some coastal companies chose a relatively easy-to-operate international market because they felt that the domestic market was heavily invested and operations were complicated, and gradually became a single export-oriented enterprise. After the advent of the financial crisis, those enterprises that have experienced globalization and sweetness have also experienced the bitterness of globalization. Many companies’ business strategies have undergone major adjustments. They have entered or infiltrated the three or four-tier markets that they did not attach importance to in the past. The biggest lesson of the financial crisis for export-oriented SMEs is that the idea of ​​“little wealth is safe” for processing exports is not an option. Only in times of peace and security, through reorganization and mobilization, a concerted effort is formed to preserve the vitality, to tide over the difficulties, and to seek opportunities to break through.
Why did Shenzhen fly well? As early as 1992, Shenzhen’s “three-to-one” business had a wave of relocation. Today, Shenzhen’s high-tech industry has one-third of the world, and foreign investment is also concentrated in the tertiary industry. Production service industry.
Shenzhen's experience has proven that low-level processing and trading enterprises lack core technologies and independent brands and cannot stand up to the impact; enterprises with strong independent innovation ability can not only stand alone, but also seize the opportunity to take advantage of the situation. A group of independent innovation-oriented enterprises such as Beterui, Art-Tu, EVOC Intelligent, ZTE Microelectronics and others have made breakthroughs in the international market and achieved expansionary growth. In the middle of this year, the Shenzhen City team conducted a major survey of 141 companies. The results showed that 85% of the companies were affected by the financial crisis, resulting in fewer orders and sales. However, 53.9% of enterprises successfully obtained new customers in the existing market, 46.8% of companies developed domestic market to make progress, and 19.1% of companies successfully developed foreign emerging markets. 9.2% of the company's products were successfully transformed, and 21.3% of the company's product sales did not fall.
Due to its technological advantage, Shenzhen enterprises have obvious advantages in exploiting the domestic market. For example, Shenzhen Kangkang Computer Technology Co., Ltd. mainly produces CRT color displays and LCD liquid crystal displays before 2007. The export ratio accounts for more than 70%. In the second half of 2008, enterprises seized the national “home appliances to the countryside” policy, and domestic domestic brand household appliance enterprises. Cooperating in the production of LCD TVs and shifting the major markets to the domestic market, the turnover in the first half of the year has increased by nearly 10% in the reverse market.
The sooner the industrial transformation starts, the better. This is in line with the gradient development theory. Although the slow transition may bring short-term benefits, in the face of major crises, the accumulated achievements have not only disappeared, but also dragged down the process of future economic growth. For Shenzhen, the financial crisis added a fire to the industrial transition, prompting the elimination of the remaining low-tech processing and trading companies, which in turn freed up space for development for companies that adhere to independent innovation and brand strategy.
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