Sino-US trade war is re-opening, BMW/Benz/Lincoln/Tesla models may rise by 50,000-300,000


Reached? Reached? Did Peak Pegasus arrive in Dalian Port? This problem is the biggest focus of today, but unfortunately, this full-loaded value of more than 150 million yuan of soybeans did not rush to the destination customs before 12 o'clock on July 6th, Beijing time, only a cool waiting for it .

So what is it that makes this freighter rush to Dalian Port? This is due to the " tragedy" triggered by a tariff imposed by the US government on June 15, 2018. The US government will impose a 25% tariff on about 50 billion US dollars of goods imported from China, including about $34 billion in goods from July 6, 2018, that is, today.

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The data shows that the ship's speed exceeds 14 knots, which is equivalent to 26 kilometers per hour. For a fully loaded freighter, this is already a life-and-death speed. This is enough to see how fierce the trade war between China and the United States is, and it is possible to evaporate tens of millions of yuan in just one minute.

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In the past few months, the trade war between China and the United States has been ups and downs. Since April this year, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports. China has also given equal efforts to fight back. Tariffs have increased from the previous 25% to 50%.

Later, with the repeated negotiations between China and the United States, the friction between China and the United States was alleviated. China canceled the previous 25% tax increase and announced in mid-May that from July 1st, the import tariff will be 25%. Downgraded to 15%, many automakers responded quickly after the news was released, and lowered the price of their imported models according to the latest tariff rate.

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However, the good times did not last long. On June 15, 2018, the United States suddenly imposed a 25% tariff on 50 billion US dollars of goods originating in China, of which 34 billion US dollars of goods would be subject to tariffs today. Within 24 hours, China's Ministry of Commerce quickly took over, and announced the announcement of a strong counterattack against the United States, which is also 50 billion US dollars. It is also the first to implement 34 billion US dollars today.

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Whether in the US or China's official tariff list, cars have a fairly high rate of occurrence, covering almost all major import and export categories.

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Since July 6, 2018, automobile products originating in the United States will be subject to a 40% tariff, while cars originating in China will generally be subject to a 27.5% tariff on the United States, but Chinese imports from the United States. The amount is as high as 280,200 units, involving an amount of US$13.07 billion, which is much higher than the size of US imports from China. As a result, China’s tax credits are less than $300 million, and the amount of taxes imposed on the United States will reach about $5 billion.

In the face of the re-opening of the Sino-US trade war, the US, German, Japanese, and new car forces can be described as a few happy. First of all, the American brand is like tears, and after several tossing down, the sales of American-made imported cars are plummeting.

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Among them, the most serious "injury" is Lincoln and Tesla. In 2017, the Lincoln brand imported car sales ranked first in the US brand, and Lincoln, who is preparing to show his talents in the Chinese market, fell into a dog.

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Take Lincoln MKX as an example. After the tariff is imposed, the purchase cost of a MKX will increase directly by 150,000 yuan. Lincoln, which has an advantage compared with Japanese cars, will further reduce the market competitiveness.

This gap will not only be rejected by the Chinese market, but even the US domestic market will be seriously affected. This also means that Lincoln will be localized as soon as possible in such an environment, otherwise it will face the embarrassing situation of a total collapse of imported car sales.

Similarly, Tesla is also facing big problems under the influence of tariffs, such as the Model S/X electric car. The models that have been pre-sold in the US for a while ago will now be fully closed for pre-sale. Tesla is also waiting for policy stability. After that, we will make a decision. Otherwise, the price change of this roller coaster will not be enough.

In addition, parts of the US brand will also be affected. SAIC GM will purchase $2.2 billion worth of parts and components from the US in the next three years. Ford China will also import complete and spare parts from the US in the next three years. The total amount will reach 9.5 billion US dollars, which will indirectly affect the terminal price of the whole vehicle and reduce the competitiveness of the product.

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The biggest victim of this Sino-US trade war is the German brand. For the German brand, it is really lying and shooting. China's counter-attack policy does not consider brand-dependent countries, but only considers the place of production, which means that the models produced by German brands in the United States will be affected.

BMW's plant in Mississippi, USA, is responsible for the production of X4, X5, X6 and many other models, many of which are BMW's main models in the Chinese market. In the future, the BMW X7, which represents the high-end image of the BMW brand, will also be produced in the United States, which will allow BMW to scratch the scalp and face the danger of being killed in the cradle.

Fortunately, the best-selling BMW X3 has been made in China and listed. For BMW, this may be a key model to restore the downturn.

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Coincidentally, Mercedes-Benz, also a luxury brand, has been affected. Mercedes-Benz's Alabama-based plant mainly produces GLE, GLS, and R-class vehicles. Now Mercedes-Benz has to allocate capacity as much as possible to Indonesia and Indian factory.

The Japanese brand, which had a good sales volume, was a long sigh of relief. The Japanese brands such as Yangge and Subaru mainly imported small models, and there were not many models in the US factory. The most important ones were Lexus. The model is also from the Kyushu factory and the garden factory in Japan.

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This time, the Japanese brand not only did not benefit from the tariff increase, but also enjoyed China's tax reduction benefits, which is even more powerful for its own Japanese brands with high cost performance. Therefore, the Japanese brand is the biggest winner in this Sino-US trade war.

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In fact, this trade war is an opportunity for Chinese brands. In the environment of frustrated imported cars, Chinese brands should step up their technological upgrades and product breakthroughs to participate more effectively in market competition.

Although this is an opportunity for Chinese brands, it is really not good news for many new car-building forces. Some of the core automotive components on new energy vehicles, such as chips, battery packs and electronic modules, are imported, and the war of tariffs will directly affect the cost of manufacturing the product.

The new forces that have no hope of car delivery have been shocked by this situation. However, everything has two sides. This is indeed a good opportunity to filter new brands. It can also eliminate some so-called "new forces". Let the new energy market be more pure.

Although the tariffs are constantly changing, the dealer's response is still calm. In some unpopular models, dealers have lowered the price to a certain extent. On the contrary, in some popular models, they have carried out different price increases. It seems that dealers have policies on tariff changes and there are countermeasures. It does not affect its actual interests.

But for parallel importers, the situation is less optimistic. Most merchants are reluctant to reduce their profits or even subsidize their own funds to make in-store discounts. They also said that even if the policy is implemented on July 1, the car will be purchased. It will take at least 2-3 months to declare.

In addition, it is not the time to consider customs declaration. Since China's customs has stopped customs declaration, parallel importers are unable to purchase new cars. This situation will directly lead to the new crisis faced by these parallel importers.



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