Phased promotion of new energy vehicles did not reach expectations

In the second half of 2010, the provinces and cities of East China, including Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, announced their respective strategic objectives for the development of new energy vehicles in the next three to five years. In the long term, the market outlook for new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, is very optimistic. However, according to the current encouraging policies and the progress of core technologies and supporting projects that have been implemented in three provinces and cities in East China, the development of new energy vehicles is generally facing unsatisfactory expectations.

The phased goal clearly identified Wang Zhe, the project leader of the Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Propulsion Office, once again clarified the goal of Shanghai in October last year: In 2012, the annual production capacity of local new energy vehicles in Shanghai will be increased to 100,000 vehicles, of which passenger vehicles will reach 6 About 10,000 vehicles will form a scale of 30 billion yuan in annual output value of new energy vehicles; the number of new energy vehicles used by private individuals in Shanghai will reach 10,000 vehicles, which will be around 20,000 vehicles.

The "Jiangsu Provincial Special Energy Development Plan for New Energy Vehicle Industry" issued by the Jiangsu Provincial Government in August 2010 proposes that Jiangsu Province will actively promote the localization of key components of new energy vehicles, the autonomy of key technologies, and the diversification of product applications; by 2012, We will strive to make sales revenue of new energy vehicles exceed 20 billion yuan, and the total vehicle production capacity will reach 60,000 vehicles. The ratio of new energy vehicles to automobile production will reach about 5%.

An expert from the National 863 Program “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles” major project team commented on the China Securities Journal reporter that the planning outlines issued by provinces and cities all referred to the autonomy and systematization of important components and key technologies. However, Different provinces and cities have different technological capabilities and do not necessarily have to be comprehensive.

In fact, compared with the plans of Shanghai and Jiangsu Provinces, the overall goals of Zhejiang's programs appear to be more conservative. According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan of Zhejiang Province" issued by the Zhejiang Provincial Government at the end of December 2010, by 2015, Zhejiang Province will have a production capacity of 10,000 new energy passenger cars and more than 50,000 new energy cars.

In the direction of new energy vehicles released by provinces and cities, hybrid industrialization first includes several technical routes for pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and fuel cells. The reporter of the China Securities Journal noticed that after comparing the three eastern provinces and cities in the east to promote the work plan, Compared with the electric vehicle concept most sought after by the market, the hybrid vehicle is actually the most pragmatic and industrialized technology direction of local governments and enterprises in the short period before 2012.

The experts of the above-mentioned “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles” major project team stated that from the actual operating conditions, hybrid vehicles are indeed the most mature technology route in the short-to-medium term, and the stability, efficiency, and cost of battery technology are common in electric vehicles. Problems.

In the development plan for new energy vehicles in Zhejiang Province, it is explicitly mentioned that Zhejiang Province will develop new energy vehicles according to the “hybrid-electrical-fuel cell” technology line, and recently adopted ordinary hybrid, plug-in hybrid and pure The electric vehicle will focus on its development strategy and strive to make breakthroughs in the field of pure electric vehicles, and start the development of fuel cell vehicles in due course.

As the main force of Shanghai's development of new energy vehicles, Shanghai Automotive has repeatedly emphasized its own plans for developing new energy vehicles and views on the market: “Aiming at the trend of automotive-driven power, focusing on accelerating the industrialization of hybrid and electric vehicles. By 2012, the Roewe 550 plug-in hybrid car with an oil-saving rate of 50% will be put into production, and its own-brand pure electric car will be mass-produced; in 2015, the domestic market share of SAIC's new energy vehicles will strive to reach 20%.”

A person in charge of the Shanghai Automotive New Energy Division said in an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal that Shanghai Automotive is fully deploying the various energy technologies of new energy vehicles. Electric vehicles are the focus of each company's development, but according to current technology maturity. With regard to supporting conditions, in fact, hybrid power is the most realistic technology in the short-to-medium term, and fuel cells are expected to last for more than five years.

During the 2010 Shanghai World Expo, SAIC provided 1,125 new energy vehicles, of which hybrid vehicles accounted for the largest proportion, with 150 hybrid buses and 350 hybrid taxis, all operating outside the Expo site. The overall lifespan and The stability is higher than that of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles and fuel cells.

Judging from the actual operation of new energy vehicles in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, hybrid power has also become the mainstream, mainly operating in the public transportation sector.

Promotion is far lower than market expectations Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Finance, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and other ministries and commissions launched the “Ten Cities Thousand Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration, Extension and Application Project” in January 2009. New energy vehicle development plans for all provinces and cities are in fact All these are developed in accordance with this policy requirement. The specific method is that by providing financial subsidies, with the use of three years or so, ten cities will be developed nationwide each year, and 1,000 new energy vehicles will be launched in each city.

In addition to promoting demonstration operations, the policy level also encourages individuals to purchase new energy vehicles. In June 2010, it was confirmed that pilot projects for private subsidies for new energy vehicles will be launched in five cities in Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Hefei. The maximum per hybrid vehicle can enjoy a subsidy of RMB 50,000, and each subsidy for a pure electric vehicle is 6 Ten thousand yuan.

In spite of the large amount of subsidies, according to the China Securities Journal reporter's comparison of the development planning objectives and specific promotion conditions of the three provinces and cities in East China, the actual promotion progress is far lower than expected. As of the recently updated June 30 data, this year, the Shanghai market has sold only 10 pure electric vehicles, and Hangzhou has only 25 vehicles.

According to an interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal, except for the fact that prices are still higher after subsidy, the convenience of practical use and even safety issues are still the biggest reasons that hinder the application of new energy vehicles.

In terms of convenience, only from the perspective of the Shanghai area, the charging equipment construction speed is far lower than the government's proposed plan in 2010. Currently, there are only 45 electric vehicle charging piles built, and most of the charging stations and charging piles are mainly It is located in the Jiading District of Shanghai, which means that the purchased pure electric vehicles can only be operated in the opposite areas. At present, the main application objects of pure electric vehicles are mainly bus groups led by the government to complete the overall development sales planning indicators.

In addition, although the maturity and operating conditions of hybrid power are better than those of pure electric vehicles, the sales of automobiles in this technology direction are not optimistic. Looking at the situation of Shanghai Automotive's hybrid vehicles, at the end of last year, Shanghai Automobile had already launched the Roewe 750 medium-mix (20% fuel saving rate), but it has been difficult to see the models of the Shanghai auto brand dealers until now. Traces. The Shanghai Auto Group official also frankly stated to the China Securities Journal reporter: “If this hybrid vehicle is to be purchased by SAIC, it can be ordered from distributors, but the actual target consumer market is still government procurement.”