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In the first half of 2008, due to factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, tight supply and demand, geopolitical and speculative capital speculation, international energy prices soared. With the impact of the international financial crisis in the second half of the year, the global economic recession has intensified, energy demand is expected to decline, and international energy prices have generally declined.
The report pointed out that in 2008, the average price of energy products imported in China basically fluctuates along with the international market. The average price of imported coal tends to be stable, and the average import prices of other energy products all showed a sharp turning point in July and August. The average import prices of crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied petroleum gas reached a historical high in August. After falling, LNG showed turbulence after July.
Statistics show that in November 2008, the average price of China's crude oil imports fell by 9.7% year-on-year; the average price of refined oil imports dropped by 23.5%; the average price of imported liquefied petroleum gas dropped by 31.3%; the average price of imported liquefied natural gas rose by 15%. .3%; average coal import price rose 1.3 times.
The report shows that with the continuous rise in international coal prices in 2008, China's coal companies' willingness to import has dropped significantly, and coal resources have also shifted from net imports to net exports. In the first 11 months, China’s net exports of coal were 2.859 million tons, while in 2007 China’s coal net imports totaled 781,000 tons.
During the same period, although the total imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas in China continued to grow, the imports of coal, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, and refined oil all dropped compared to the same period of last year. Crude oil, refined oil, and coal imports fell to levels since January 2008. The lowest level.
The report pointed out that the phenomenon of high concentration of sources of energy imports in China in 2008 has not yet been significantly improved. In the first 11 months, 54.9% of China’s imported crude oil came from Asia. The vast majority come from the turbulent Middle East and 30.8% from Africa, where the political situation is not stable. 47.9% of refined oil is imported from Korea and ASEAN. 87.3% of the liquefied petroleum gas is imported from five Middle East countries including UAE, Kuwait, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. 80.3% of liquefied natural gas is imported from Australia. More than 70% of coal imports from ASEAN.
"The over-concentration of sources of imports has made our country's overseas energy strategy vulnerable to changes in political and foreign trade policies of energy-producing countries," the report pointed out. Taking coal as an example, competition in coal resources in the Asia-Pacific region is currently fierce. Major coal-producing countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, have adopted export restrictions on coal to meet domestic demand. In the first 11 months of 2008, China’s imports of coal from the two countries have declined. 14.4% and 27.3%.
The report pointed out that energy reserves have an important strategic significance for a country, especially a large developing country such as China, which has the contradiction between oil supply and demand. Compared with other countries in the world, China’s current oil energy reserves are lagging behind and the ability to regulate the domestic market still needs to be further strengthened.
In addition, at present, China's consumption structure with coal as the main energy resource makes it difficult to avoid problems such as low energy utilization efficiency and severe environmental pollution. At the same time, with the increase of oil and natural gas consumption, domestic supply is seriously insufficient. If relying solely on imported oil and natural gas to make up for the gap in domestic consumption will increase the dependence on energy imports, and the issue of petroleum safety will become increasingly prominent.
News Analysis: What are the characteristics of China's energy trade in 2008?
According to the monitoring report issued by the General Administration of Customs on the 4th, in the first 11 months of 2008, China's imports of major energy commodities (including crude oil, refined oil, LPG, liquefied natural gas, and coal) totaled 240 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3. At 7%, the growth rate dropped by 9.7 percentage points; the value was US$158.6 billion, an increase of 74%, accounting for 14.9% of the total value of China's imports during the same period.