In July, the auto market was deserted in the second half of the year.

In the second half of the year, the auto market began to dim. In the past July, the passenger car market slowed down and entered the summer off-season mode completely. Some car companies suffered negative growth.

The trend of the auto market this year is quite delicate. In the first half of this year, the sales of passenger car terminals still achieved an increase of 15%, but they also included boosts caused by non-normal factors such as panic buying triggered by purchase restriction and private car purchase caused by official car reform. At the same time, the restocking of high stocks has laid the ground for market shocks.

Market is lower than expected by 3%

“The auto market entered a wait period in July.” Cui Dongshu, an analyst at the CUCH, said that at the beginning of July, the wholesale volume of the manufacturers started to decline. The sales volume in the first three weeks dropped by 9% from the same period in June and was up 6% year-on-year. Taking into account that some manufacturers have entered the period of vacation and equipment maintenance in late July, the sales trend in July will remain low. It is expected that the number of passenger vehicles to be sold in July will be around 1.32 million units, up 15% year-on-year and down 9% month-on-month.

However, the new car tide in July has driven the sales volume of the manufacturers to some extent. In recent months, factory inventories have grown rapidly, and new cars and old-fashioned clearance have all contributed to the fact that manufacturers' sales are not slack during the off-season. Cui Dongshu also believes that with the government's support for independent brands' policy subsidies being gradually and forthcoming, it is expected that independent brands will have a better market trend in the autumn, and there will be opportunities for improvement in the early period of continuous downturn. "But before the new policy is introduced, there must be a waiting phenomenon. Therefore, it is difficult for the wholesale in July to reach expectations."

The retail sales of passenger cars also slowed in July. The number of domestic retail sales in July before July is expected to be about 1.27 million units, down 6% from June and 15% year-on-year. Cui Dongshu said that at present, the actual market is about 3 points lower than expected.

Cui Dongshu believes that due to the previous period of limited market purchases has already fallen in early June, but the downturn during the World Cup to make up for the recent increase. With the recent introduction of energy-saving and subsidies for new energy vehicles, companies have also adjusted their vehicle structure early, and the trend of lower oil prices and stronger short-term economy has also promoted consumption. In August, retail sales should have a good growth.

Some car companies experience "stall risk"

In the recent complex market trend, some car companies are experiencing "stall" risks.

According to the latest data released by Honda China, sales in China reached 39,543 units in July, a drop of more than two percent from the same period last year. Among which, Guangzhou Automobile Honda has dropped by 15%, and Dongfeng Honda has dropped by more than 30%. On specific models, the decline in Accord sales is still a major obstacle to the speed of Guangzhou Automobile Honda. The CR-V, the main model of Dongfeng Honda, fell more than 50% compared with the same period last year. These phenomena are all very unusual.

Some car companies that are expanding their product lines and market scale have achieved better growth. Mazda China announced that it sold 15,934 vehicles in July, an increase of 36.4% year-on-year, and an increase of 21.8% in the first seven months.

In the luxury car segment, Volvo’s sales in China in July alone rose by 47.8% year-on-year in the month and 36.2% in the first seven months. Thanks to the strong performance of the Chinese market, Volvo Car Group's global sales in the first 7 months totaled 265451 vehicles, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, and the performance achieved a steady increase for 13 consecutive months.

Guangzhou Automobile Toyota Motor Co., Ltd., which is implementing a small-medium-sized vehicle strategy, achieved sales growth of 33% in the first half of this year. However, Li Hui, deputy general manager of GAC Toyota, believes that after April, the growth rate of the domestic auto market has slowed down significantly. In particular, there has been almost no growth in the mid-to-high-end car market, and the small car market has only grown by 5%. The growth pressure of several major segments of passenger cars is very high. "This is very unusual compared with the growth of the market in previous years."