Ruihode Bearing Co., Ltd. , http://www.sdrollerbearing.com
China's largest exporter to Asia In 2007, the world's total demand for caustic soda was approximately 58.7 million dry tons. Among them, Asia accounted for 45%, North America accounted for 23%, ranking the top two. In the Asia-Pacific market, Far East (China, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea) is the main export area, and Oceania, North America, and Southeast Asia are the major import regions. In 2007, China’s exports of caustic soda had seen a substantial increase. The total export volume increased by 164,000 dry tons to 764,000 dry tons from the previous year, replacing Japan as the largest exporter in Asia.
The demand for caustic soda will also grow rapidly this year. From the perspective of future development trends, due to the increasing attention paid by various countries to environmental protection, the demand for the growth of caustic soda is mainly concentrated in areas related to the environment, such as water treatment. In addition, the expansion of alumina production capacity also increased the demand for caustic soda.
It is predicted that global demand for caustic soda will reach about 60 million dry tons in 2008. The total export volume in the Far East is 2.75 million dry tons, an increase of approximately 310,000 dry tons from the previous year. Among them, China is expected to increase nearly 200,000 dry tons compared to 2007 to 950,000 dry tons, accounting for 35%. In the Far East export, the contract volume was 1.97 million dry tons, accounting for 72% of the total; and the spot volume was 780,000 dry tons, accounting for 28%.
China has become a very important role in the caustic soda market. Due to the inability of many chlor-alkali companies to operate and expand in large scale, many customers are very much looking forward to the stable development of China's caustic soda exports.
The axis of exports in North America, Australia, and India is the largest destination for China's caustic soda exports in 2007. The number of caustic soda imported from China rose from 22,000 dry tons in 2006 to 218,000 dry tons, accounting for 29 of China's total exports. %. The reason is that Dow Chemical shut down caustic soda plants located on the west coast of Canada, and there is no significant change in local demand for caustic soda. Currently, there is no plan to put caustic soda plant into operation in the west coast of North America. Therefore, Canada will still maintain a large import demand.
The United States is a relatively mature caustic soda market. Due to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the demand for chlorine products has been limited in recent years, which poses constraints on the production of caustic soda. American caustic soda companies are mainly concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico and Texas, and local production is very large. In addition to domestic sales to the United States, they also export to South America. However, the number of chlor-alkali plants on the West Coast of the United States is very small, and many local traders own storage tanks. Imports of products imported from Asia are local characteristics. Shintech's annual output of 300,000 tons of caustic soda project will soon be put into production. Whether the US caustic soda market will fluctuate will be the main concern of the market in the next three months.
Australia is the major caustic soda export market in the Asia Pacific region. Australia's alumina industry has 1.8-1.9 million dry tons of caustic soda annually. Affected by the increase in downstream demand, Australian alumina also has an expansion plan. The alumina industry in the country is expected to have 1.93 million dry tons of caustic soda in 2008, an increase of approximately 100,000 dry tons from the previous year, and will reach 217 by 2010. Ten thousand tons. The demand for caustic soda in Australia is very large, but the chlor-alkali enterprises are few. There are three main reasons: First, the local downstream demand for chlorine is very low, and chlor-alkali cannot be balanced; second, the government has strict requirements on environmental protection, and there are many restrictions on the production of caustic soda; Chlor-alkali plants cannot achieve the goal of reasonable cost. Therefore, Australia's alumina market will continue to maintain its huge demand for caustic soda, and it will be maintained for a long time.
Southeast Asia and South Asia as a whole are the caustic soda import market. The import volume in 2007 was about 260,000 dry tons, which is expected to increase to more than 300,000 dry tons in 2008. India’s import volume will see a big leap forward. There are about 2.6 million dry tons of demand in the Indian market, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 5% to 10% in the future. In recent years, the demand for caustic soda from alumina alone has increased by 400,000 to 500,000 dry tons. About 1 million tons of India's caustic soda production capacity is mainly in the West Coast region, which is only enough to meet the needs of its traditional products such as soap on the west coast. The Indian alumina project is mainly located on the East Coast because of resource constraints. The required bases for burning the alumina are entirely solved by imports.
The international market remained strong during the year Due to the low chlorine income of chlor-alkali enterprises, the pressure of maintaining high prices or increasing prices of caustic soda was very high. In the recent two or three months, the Asian caustic soda market prices showed a large increase. There are three main reasons. First, the increase in demand for caustic soda is not only in China but also in the worldwide demand for caustic soda. The second is the increase in costs, especially the cost of electricity. The third is that the price of chlorine products is greatly constrained. The downstream 40% of chlorine products are PVC. Except for China, ethylene is the main method. Recently, due to the increase in crude oil prices, the profit of PVC is quite low, which restrains the demand for chlorine.
The price of caustic soda in the North American market is in line with the direction of the Asian market. The price of caustic soda FOB in the US Gulf of Mexico has exceeded US$500 (t price, the same below). The fluctuations in the price of caustic soda in the US Gulf of Mexico also affect the West Coast market, which in turn affects the Asian market. Since the beginning of this year, the price of Asian exports of caustic soda has risen by nearly 100 US dollars, at about 400 US dollars (FOB). The export of caustic soda from the Far East to the West Coast of the United States costs approximately US$115 per ton of transport, so the price of caustic soda in the US Gulf of Mexico is US$500 and the export price in the Far East is US$400, which is a realistic price.
The long-term trend of caustic soda prices in the long term is very difficult to predict. In the short term, such as in 2008, caustic soda will maintain its high price and maintain the price level of 350-420 US dollars, which is a very high historical price.
Global caustic soda market China flash
Recently, the market prices of caustic soda in Asia and North America have seen a large increase. It is expected that the international market will maintain its strength during the year. “In the entire caustic soda import and export business, China is a very flashy part.†Mr. Tachikawa Kazuo of the Chlor-Alkali Department of the General Chemicals Division of Mitsubishi Corporation in Japan made the above statement in the report of the 2008 national caustic soda market seminar.