Industry analysts believe that the NDRC's 2010 refined oil price adjustment frequency will be significantly lower than in 2009, the future price adjustment will be limited, is expected to be between 150 -200 yuan / ton. According to the Securities Daily report on February 22, the Spring Festival has been quietly spent in the endless sound of firecrackers. The US crude oil also seems to feel the joy of the festival, and it continues to rise. Last week, March crude oil futures surged 5.68 US dollars, reaching 7.7%, approaching 80 US dollars/barrel, becoming the largest one-week percentage increase since the week of October 16, 2009, and worrying about whether the price of oil can stand firm at 80 U.S. dollars/ At the same time as the barrel, the fear of price adjustment of domestic refined oil prices will follow. Can we stand 80 US dollars still need to verify On Friday, the Fed’s news that the Fed’s rate of discounts raised investor confidence in the prospects for economic recovery, coupled with the favorable strike from workers in France’s Total Refinery, led New York’s crude oil to continue its four-day rally, closing at US$79.81 per barrel. US$80/barrel, a record high in five weeks. The Federal Reserve announced on the 18th that the federal discount rate has been raised from 0.5% to 0.75%, which has caused investors to worry that more delisting measures will be introduced. However, on the 19th, the market further interpreted that the Fed’s move reflected a certain degree of affirmation of the economic recovery. In particular, the increase in the affordability of the banking system has boosted market sentiment, and crude oil futures prices have risen. March crude oil futures closed up 0.75 US dollars/barrel, or 0.95%, to US$79.81 a barrel, the highest closing rate since January 14th. The trading range was 77.76-79.95 US dollars/barrel. With the change of investor sentiment, the US dollar rallied and provided upward momentum for the dollar-denominated crude oil futures prices. At the same time, during the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil and the stock market show a high degree of correlation. The improvement in the global economy reflected by the rise in the stock market once gave rise to a forecast of demand for the United States, the world’s largest consumer of oil, effectively supporting the high price of crude oil. Before the Spring Festival, the US Energy Information Department (EIA) has stated that the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) in the second half of 2010 is expected to be US$81/barrel, and the average annual price of 2010 is expected to be US$80/barrel. . It is expected that the average price of WTI crude oil in the first quarter of 2010 will be US$76.78/barrel, and the 2011 WTI average price is expected to be US$84/barrel, which is in line with previous expectations. The expectation is to assume that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 2.3% in 2010 and 2.5% next year. At the same time, the EIA raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2010 because of rising demand from China and other Asian countries. They are expected to increase global crude oil demand growth in 2010 by 120,000 barrels/day to 1.2 million barrels/day. It is estimated that the annual global crude oil demand in 2010 will increase by 1.4% to 85.3 million barrels per day. In the past two years, the global demand for crude oil has declined and it has dropped for the first time in two consecutive years since 1983. At the same time, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth by 10,000 barrels per day in 2010 to 810,000 barrels per day, saying that the US’s largest consumer of crude oil is recovering slowly. However, the latest EIA report shows that as of February 12th, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding inventory in strategic crude oil reserves) increased by 3.1 million barrels to 314.5 million barrels over the previous week, exceeding the upper limit of the average inventory interval over the same period of previous years. . The capacity utilization rate of the refinery increased by 0.6% to 79.75%. In the past four weeks, refinery capacity utilization has been below the 80% level. Over the past two weeks, cold weather and blizzards have hit the eastern coast of the United States, but this weather factor has hardly served to boost the price of heating oil. In addition, in the past week, the average daily gasoline output of the United States decreased by 37.9 million barrels, and the average daily gasoline import volume also decreased by 459,000 barrels. This increased investor concerns about the reduction in the future supply of gasoline and provided upward momentum for oil prices. At present, the inventory of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States is still at a relatively high level. Industry analysts believe that although the MACD indicator has shown a trend of reversal, the indicators of RSI and KDJ are in the oversold zone, and the ability of the market to stand firm at 80 U.S. dollars remains to be verified. There are also views that NYMEX's oil prices are approaching high-intensity trading areas, and resistance will still be encountered near the rebound to 84 USD. Domestic oil price adjustment window is approaching Whether the rising crude oil prices during the Spring Festival holiday will lead to changes in domestic refined oil prices will also come with concern. Before the holiday, the price of international crude oil futures was “up and downâ€, falling from a relative high of US$82 a barrel and breaking through the US$70 mark, making the market’s expectations of raising refined oil prices, and it suddenly turned down its expectations. According to the pricing mechanism for refined oil products, when the average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, domestic refined oil prices can be adjusted accordingly. The latest price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission was held on November 10, 2009 and has been maintained for more than three months. This time span has also created the highest record since the formation of the new refined oil pricing mechanism. Previously, throughout 2009, the Chinese government made a total of eight price adjustments for refined oil products in accordance with the new pricing mechanism, which was “5 over 3 times.†In the calculation of the National Development and Reform Commission, the new pricing mechanism has saved 400 people for the entire society. 100 million yuan. The reversal of the international oil price during the long holiday will make the price adjustment window approach again. We will wait and see. Industry analysts believe that in the case of strong inflation expectations, the National Development and Reform Commission's price adjustment in 2010 will be significantly lower than in 2009, and the adjustment rate will also be significantly reduced compared with 2009. Even if the price adjustment will be limited in the future, it is expected to be between RMB 150-200/ton. 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