Arrow: Slowdown in China's Commercial Vehicle Production Growth in the Next Three Years


The recent growth rate of China's medium and heavy commercial vehicle market has dropped, and it is expected that the entire industry will continue its growth slowdown by 2015.

On April 25, AlixPartners, a global business consulting company, released a research report showing that from now until 2015, China's average annual growth rate of commercial vehicle production will decline to 3.2%, which is lower than the 4.3% growth of the global industry in the same period. Rate level.

International standards divide automobiles into two categories: passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Passenger vehicles are used to carry personnel and baggage or occasionally carry articles, including up to 9 cars, including drivers. Commercial vehicles include all trucks and more than nine passenger vehicles. Heavy and medium-sized commercial vehicles refer to vehicles of over 3.5 tons.

The report pointed out that the global auto industry is recovering from the plunge in 2009 and entering an upward cycle, but the pace of recovery in various regions is not the same. The share of commercial vehicle production in Western Europe fell from 20% in 2007 to 13% in 2011. It is expected that it will not be able to return to 21% in 2008 by 2016; the North American auto industry has fully recovered in 2011 and is expected to meet by 2015. Industry consolidation occurred, but the average annual growth rate of commercial vehicle production was only 2.1%.

At the same time, the output of commercial vehicles in China grew at an average annual rate of 11.5% from 2007 to 2011, which is higher than the growth rate of 2.2% in the global industry in the same period. However, the scale of decline for the first time in 2011 is expected to remain in the next three to five years. Steady growth.

According to the report, factors such as the slowdown in China's growth rate and the recovery of leading international companies and the tightening of emission regulations will lead to price competition in the commercial vehicle market, and cost pressures from suppliers will place further pressure on profitability. Requires the entire depot to enhance its internal operations optimization, and explore profitable potential through various means such as technological upgrading and integrated supply.

The report also pointed out that China's commercial vehicle exports experienced a significant decline in 2009 and 2010, the current strong growth. However, it is worth noting that in 2011 China's commercial vehicle exports were 3.8 million, which only rebounded to the level of 2008 (3.62 million). Moreover, China's commercial vehicle exports are mainly concentrated in the Asia-Africa region, and have not really entered the mature market.

Mr. Ivo Naumann, managing director of AlixPartners, and Mr. Ivo Naumann, head of the Shanghai office, commented that the slowdown in China’s commercial vehicle industry is due to the overall economic slowdown in China, which will force commercial vehicle companies to improve their cost structure and increase efficiency. . Due to the lack of truly successful breakthroughs in China's export market for commercial vehicle companies, these companies need to further improve their product quality and performance and establish service networks in major export markets. ■




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