Analysis on the Economic Benefits of China Bearing Industry in 2011

I. Overall situation of the industry in 2011 According to the statistics of key enterprises of the China Bearing Industry Association, in 2011 the national bearing industry completed a total of 142 billion yuan in main business income, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and bearing production completed 18 billion sets, a year-on-year increase of 20%.

The company exported 4.9 billion sets of bearings for the year, generating foreign exchange of USD 4.5 billion, an increase of 18.2% and 36.6% over the same period of last year. It has a total of 1.88 billion sets of imported bearings and US$4.17 billion of foreign exchange, which is an increase of 4.6% and 9.4% respectively from the same period of last year. The import and export trade surplus is 3.3 billion U.S. dollars.

II. Characteristics of the industry's operation in 2011 1. The development of the industry showed a trend of highs and lows afterwards, and maintained a certain growth for the whole year. In February 2011, the main business income of key linking companies increased by 26.65% year-on-year, and then the year-on-year growth rate declined. The year-on-year growth rate fell to 10.27% at the end of the year. The revenue from the bearing finished product business was basically the same, while the decrease in bearing export business revenue was relatively small, but the industrial added value was the most obvious. The year-on-year growth rate had dropped to -7.6% in December.

2. The balance between production and sales is basically balanced, but the inventory amount has increased all the way From the point of view of bearing production and sales, the cumulative number of production and sales per month is basically balanced, but from the perspective of bearing stocks, although the year-on-year growth rate fluctuates, it generally shows an upward trend. The inventory amount at the end of February was 4.2 billion yuan, and by the end of 12 it had increased to 6.15 billion yuan, an increase of 46.4%. From this point of view, the inventory bearing products are developing into large bearings and high-end products.

3. Profit growth slipped to negative growth at the end of the year, and tax growth was also greatly affected. Profit growth at the beginning of February was close to 60%, while it slipped to a negative growth of -3% in December, and the total tax revenue was also greatly affected. The growth rate in October has dropped to 0.34%, and by the end of December it has increased to 10.1%, which is still much stronger than the profit.

4. Import and export of bearings once again showed a surplus Since the international financial crisis, the bearing import and export deficit in 2009 was 800 million U.S. dollars. In 2010, the bearing import and export deficit was 500 million U.S. dollars. In 2011, bearing imports and exports returned to a surplus, with a surplus of 330 million U.S. dollars. On the one hand, China’s export bearing market and structure have undergone reasonable adjustments, and the share of large bearings and high-end and high-end bearings has increased. On the other hand, multinational bearing group companies have built factories in China and imported bearings have decreased.

III. Industry Market Forecast in 2012 1. The domestic bearing market predicts that the uncertainties in the domestic bearing market will increase further in 2012. The bearing industry will experience a situation of low and high prices. It is expected that the first half of 2012 will continue the downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2011. In the second half of the year, it will slowly pick up, but the recovery is limited. It is estimated that the overall development trend will be stable in the second half of the year. As some enterprises in the industry, especially large-scale backbone enterprises, have begun to show the preliminary results of transformation, upgrading and structural adjustment in recent years, it is expected that in 2012, the main business income of the bearing industry will reach about 158 ​​billion yuan, an increase of about 11%. Bearing business revenue will reach about 112 billion yuan, a growth rate of about 12%, bearing production will reach about 21 billion sets, a growth rate of about 16%.

At the same time, the negative factors in the business environment of the company increased in 2012, and the operating risks increased. In particular, in the first half of the year, many domestic host industries lacked supporting requirements, bearing enterprise orders decreased, and most enterprises had less than 50% of orders in the first half of the year and underemployment; a batch of new or expansion projects were put into operation, which caused the over-capacity of ordinary product markets Competition has threatened the survival of some enterprises; the price of production factors such as labor and raw materials has risen; the cost pressure on enterprises has increased; profits have fallen; corporate inventories have risen, receivables have increased, and recycling has been difficult, especially for SMEs.

2. Foreign Bearing Market Forecast Internationally, due to the fact that the euro crisis cannot be improved in the short term, the economic stagnation of the United States and Japan, and the growth rate of the Asian economy may slow down, which will affect China’s bearing exports. However, from another perspective, due to the international economic downturn, it is bound to prompt all kinds of economies to strive to reduce cost pressures. China's bearing performance and price ratio also has certain advantages, coupled with the development of China's bearing industry in recent years, not only ball bearings have occupied a certain market in the international market, and from the changes in the structure of export products in recent years, roller bearing exports also have a Great progress, and the development of large bearings, therefore, although China's bearing exports will not continue this year's high growth trend in 2012, but it will not be much slower than the development rate in recent years. It is expected that bearing exports will also be generated in 2012. There is a growth of about 15%.